人工智能分析报告-斯坦福ai100报告：2030年的人工智能与生活artificialintelligenceandlifein(编辑修改稿)

人工智能分析报告-斯坦福ai100报告：2030年的人工智能与生活artificialintelligenceandlifein(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

nsider the likely influences of AI in a typical North American city by the year 2030, the 20xx Study Panel, prising experts in AI and other relevant areas focused their attention on eight domains they considered most salient: transportation。 service robots。 healthcare。 education。 lowresource munities。 public safety and security。 employment and workplace。 and entertainment. In each of these domains, the report both reflects on progress in the past fifteen years and anticipates developments in the ing fifteen years. Though drawing from a mon source of research, each domain reflects different AI influences and challenges, such as the difficulty of creating safe and reliable hardware (transportation and service robots), the difficulty of smoothly interacting with human experts (healthcare and education), the challenge of gaining public trust (lowresource munities and public safety and security), the challenge of overing fears of marginalizing humans (employment and workplace), and the social and societal risk of diminishing interpersonal interactions (entertainment). The report begins with a reflection on what constitutes Artificial Intelligence, and concludes with remendations concerning AIrelated policy. These remendations include accruing technical expertise about AI in government and devoting more resources—and removing impediments—to research on the fairness, security, privacy, and societal impacts of AI systems. Contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the Study Panel found no cause for concern that AI is an imminent threat to humankind. No machines with selfsustaining longterm goals and intent have been developed, nor are they likely to be developed in the near future. Instead, increasingly useful applications of AI, with potentially profound positive impacts on our society and economy are likely to emerge between now and 2030, the period this report considers. At the same time, many of these developments will spur disruptions in how human labor is augmented or replaced by AI, creating new challenges for the economy and society more broadly. Application design and policy decisions made in the near term are likely to have longlasting influences on the nature and directions of such developments, making it important for AI researchers, developers, social scientists, and policymakers to balance the imperative to innovate with mechanisms to ensure that AI‘s economic and social benefits are broadly shared across society. If society approaches these technologies primarily with fear and suspicion, missteps that slow AI‘s development or drive it underground will result, impeding important work on ensuring the safety and reliability of AI technologies. On the other hand, if society approaches AI with a more open mind, the technologies emerging from the field could profoundly transform society for the better in the ing decades. Study Panel: Peter Stone, Chair, University of Texas at Austin, Rodney Brooks, Rethink Robotics, Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Ryan Calo, University of Washington, Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI, Greg Hager, Johns Hopkins University, Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University, Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research, Sarit Kraus, Bar Ilan University. Kevin LeytonBrown, University of British Columbia, David Parkes, Harvard University, William Press, University of Texas at Austin, AnnaLee (Anno) Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley, Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of Technology, Milind Tambe, University of Southern California, Astro Teller, X Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artificial Intelligence: Barbara J. Grosz, Chair, Russ Altman, Eric Horvitz, Alan Mackworth, Tom Mitchell, Deidre Mulligan, Yoav Shoham While drawing on mon research and technologies, AI systems are specialized to acplish particular tasks. Each application requires years of focused research and a careful, unique construction. 5 Many have already grown accustomed to touching and talking to their smart phones. People’s future relationships with machines will bee ever more nuanced, fluid, and personalized. 6 OVERVIEW The frightening, futurist portrayals of Artificial Intelligence that dominate films and novels, and shape the popular imagination, are fictional. In reality, AI is already changing our daily lives, almost entirely in ways that improve human health, safety, and productivity. Unlike in the movies, there is no race of superhuman robots on the horizon or probably even possible. And while the potential to abuse AI technologies must be acknowledged and addressed, their greater potential is, among other things, to make driving safer, help children learn, and extend and enhance people‘s lives. In fact, beneficial AI applications in schools, homes, and hospitals are already growing at an accelerated pace. Major research universities devote departments to AI studies, and technology panies such as Apple, Facebook, Google, IBM, and Microsoft spend heavily to explore AI applications they regard as critical to their futures. Even Hollywood uses AI technologies to bring its dystopian AI fantasies to the screen. Innovations relying on puterbased vision, speech recognition, and Natural Language Processing have driven these changes, as have concurrent scientific and technological advances in related fields. AI is also changing how people interact with technology. Many people have already grown accus。