人工智能分析报告-人工智能，机器人和工作的未来(编辑修改稿)

人工智能分析报告-人工智能，机器人和工作的未来(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

w tools, which will also likely lead to a new wave of innovations and jobs.” Fred Baker, Inter pioneer, longtime leader in the IETF and Cisco Systems Fellow, responded, “My observation of advances in automation has been that they change jobs, but they don39。 t reduce them. A car that can guide itself on a striped street has more difficulty with an unstriped street, for example, and any automated system can handle events that it is designed for, but not events (such as a child chasing a ball into a street) for which it is not designed. Y es, I expect a lot of change. I don39。 t think the human race can retire en masse by 2025.” Argument 2: Advances in technology create new jobs and industries even as they displace some of the older ones Ben Shneiderman, professor of puter science at the University of Maryland, wrote, “Robots and AI make pelling stories for journalists, but they are a false vision of the major economic changes. Journalists lost their jobs because of changes to advertising, professors are threatened by MOOCs, and store salespeople are losing jobs to Inter sales people. Improved user interfaces, electronic delivery (videos, music, etc.), and more selfreliant customers reduce job needs. At the 7 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g same time someone is building new websites, managing corporate social media plans, creating new products, etc. Improved user interfaces, novel services, and fresh ideas will create more jobs.” Amy Webb, CEO of strategy firm Webbmedia Group, wrote, “There is a general concern that the robots are taking over. I disagree that our emerging technologies will permanently displace most of the workforce, though I39。 d argue that jobs will shift into other sectors. Now more than ever, an army of talented coders is needed to help our technology advance. But we will still need folks to do packaging, assembly, sales, and outreach. The collar of the future is a hoodie.” John Markoff, senior writer for the Science section of the New York Times, responded, “You didn39。 t allow the answ er that I feel strongly is accurate—too hard to predict. There will be a vast displacement of labor over the next decade. That is true. But, if we had gone back 15 years who would have thought that „search engine optimization‟ would be a significant job category?” Marjory Blumenthal, a science and technology policy analyst, wrote, “In a given context, automated devices like robots may displace more than they create. But they also generate new categories of work, giving rise to second and thirdorder effects. Also, there is likely to be more humanrobot collaboration—a change in the kind of work opportunities available. The wider impacts are the hardest to predict。 they may not be strictly attributable to the uses of automation but they are related…what the middle of the 20th century shows us is how dramatic major economic changes are—like the 1970s OPECdriven increases of the price of oil—and how those changes can dwarf the effects of technology.” Argument 3: There are certain jobs that only humans have the capacity to do A number of respondents argued that many jobs require uniquely human characteristics such as empathy, creativity, judgment, or critical thinking—and that jobs of this nature will never succumb to widespread automation. David Hughes, a retired . Army Colonel who, from 1972, was a pioneer in individual to/from digital telemunications, responded, “For all the automation and AI, I think the 39。 human hand39。 will have to be involved on a large scale. Just as aircraft have to have pilots and copilots, I don39。 t think all 39。 selfdriving39。 cars will be totally unmanned. The human39。 s ability to detect unexpected circumstances, and take action overriding automatic driving will be needed as long and individually owned 39。 cars39。 are on the road.” Pamela Rutledge, PhD and director of the Media Psychology Research Center, responded, “There will be many things that machines can39。 t do, such as services that require thinking, 8 PEW RESEARCH CENTER g creativity, synthesizing, problemsolving, and innovating…Advances in AI and robotics allow people to cognitively offload repetitive tasks and invest their attention and energy in things where humans can make a difference. We already have cars that talk to us, a phone we can talk to, robots that lift the elderly out of bed, and apps that remind us to call Mom. An app can dial Mom39。 s number and even send flowers, but an app can39。 t do that most human of all things: emotionally connect with her.” Michael Glassman, associate professor at the Ohio State University, wrote, “I think AI will do a few more things, but people are going to be surprised how limited it is. There will be greater differentiation between what AI does and what humans do, but also much more realization that AI will not be able to engage the critical tasks that humans do.” Argument 4: The technology will not advance enough in the next decade to substantially impact the job market Another group of experts feels that the impact on employment is likely to be minimal for the simple reason that 10 years is too short a timeframe for automation to move substantially beyond the factory floor. David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT‟s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, noted, “The larger trend to consider is the peration of automation into service jobs. This trend will require new skills for the service industry, which may challenge some of the lowertier workers, but in 12 years I do not think autonomous devices will be truly autonomous. I think they will allow us to deliver a higher level of service with the same level of human involvement.” Jari Arkko, Inter expert for Ericsson and chair of the Inter Engineering Task。