科尔尼全球零售发展指数报告(编辑修改稿)

科尔尼全球零售发展指数报告(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

ies, they all chose and prioritized target countries, managed their time, and were flexible enough to quickly revise their strategies to exploit successes or mitigate failures. Flexibility and timing need to be managed in parallel. Even in developing countries, it is critical to measure and monitor key perfor mance indicators. The steep learning curve in these environments can quickly turn a few errors into a disaster, usually within 6 to 12 months — versus 18 to 36 months under simi lar circumstances in a more mature country. To help retailers prioritize their market entry choices over time, . Kearney developed the Global Retail Development Index (GRDI). . . Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers The GRDI ranks emerging countries based on four criteria: economic and political risk。 mod ern retail area per inhabitants (retail saturation level)。 the number of international retailers present locally。 and the ―time factor,‖ or how quickly a country should be entered as deter mined by the difference between GDP growth and retail growth. This index, updated yearly, categorizes emerging countries into three types: ―on the radar screen‖ (a good entry opportunity in 20xx), ―to consider‖ and ―to avoid‖. : Forty percent of the GRDI countries ―on the radar screen‖ and ―to consider‖ in 20xx are in Eastern Europe — an increase of more than 10 percent over 20xx (see figure 3 and figure 4 on page 6). The region is growing more than the global average, with regional output growth of more than 3 percent, and most countries there are on track to join the European Union by 20xx. With few exceptions, the modern retail market is not saturated. The topranked country, and the one manding the highest score increase this year, is Russia. With inflation forecast at 16 percent for 20xx, versus 84 percent in 1998, and GDP growth of 4 to 5 percent a year, Russia has bee economically stronger. Retail density is very low。 only six international players have settled there and the retail sector is booming. Russia39。 s potential is based on four elements in addition to the GRDI variables: • Largest food market in Europe: The market totals US$58 billion according to official Russian statistics. Russians spend up to 80 per 1 Target Figure 2: Companies take different entry approaches Q uick expansion: Ahold, Tesco Escalator: WalMart Waitandsee: Casino, Carrefour 2 3 4 5 Source: . Kearney . . Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers cent of their ine on consumer goods. • Population of 143 million: Thirteen cities in Russia boast more than one million inhabitants (more than 20 percent of Russia’s population) and the retail market remains undeveloped. For example, Novosibirsk (with million people) has only 40 grocery stores with an average of 500 square meters of space. • Increasing spending power (US$1,041 annual ine): In Moscow and St. Petersburg, the average spending power reaches levels pa rable to or greater than those of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. • Economic and political reforms: Russia is now officially recognized as a market economy by the United States and European Union. Retailers are quickly capturing market share in cities other than Moscow, which has 12 million inhabitants, but they are also strengthening their existing positions. Auchan, after opening its first hypermarket in Moscow in August 20xx, is now planning to open in St. Petersburg. Its strategy is to achieve an aver age transaction of US$20 in its stores by pricing 10 percent below other retailers in the city. Metro, operating under the Real label in Russia, opened in St. Petersburg and is now investing US$900 million to open 20 hypermarkets in and around Moscow over the next three years. Other retailers are considering different strategies. Local experts believe that Casino might be planning to enter via acquisition. WalMart, Figure 3: Most attractive developing regions for retail “ ” “ ” (20xx versus 20xx) 45% 40% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 30% 30% 35% 20% 5% 15% 20% 20xx 20xx 5% 0% Eastern Europe Source: . Kearney Asia Americas . . Mediterranean Africa Emerging Market Priorities for Food Retailers which sent a delegation to Russia in June and December 20xx to check out the possibilities, might also be interested in taking a 75 percent stake in the Petrovsky business, which has 31 outlets in Russia. AVA entered anically under the Marktkauf brand in February 20xx. Of course, foreign retailers still face many issues in Russia. Metro and Auchan have been accused of unfair petition by local retailers, although selling below cost is not (yet) pro hibited in Russia. In addition, 40 percent of Russian retail sales are generated in gray mar kets—a solid improvement over the 70 percent generated in the 1990s, but still high. The local product supply infrastructure remains poor, and product availability is limited. The Slovak Republic ranks second on the GRDI, unchanged since last year. Its high score in the time pressure category (100) reflects a market that is unexploited by international re。