国际金融学policiesintheopeneconomy课件(编辑修改稿)

国际金融学policiesintheopeneconomy课件(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

s t i c gov e r nm e nt bon d s a nd l oa ns t o dom e s t i c pr i va t e ba nks . 3. N e t e qui t y i s i gno r e d due t o i t s m i nor i m por t a nc e i n t he a na l ys i s . 39 Table 322 Balance Sheet and Intervention T a bl e 3 2 2 1 B a l a nc e S he e t A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 1000 $ 1500 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i on $ 500 $ 2020 T a bl e 3 2 2 2 B a l a nc e S he e t a f t e r I nt e r ve nt i on ( P a ys w i t h C ur r e nc y) A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 900 $ 1500 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i on $ 500 $ 1900 T a bl e 3 2 2 3 B a l a nc e S he e t a f t e r I nt e r ve nt i on ( P a ys w i t h a C he c k) A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 900 $ 1500 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i on $ 400 $ 2020 40 Intervention and Money Supply III. Sterilization What Is Sterilization? “Central banks sometimes carry out equal foreign and domestic asset transactions in opposite directions to nullify the impact of their foreign exchange operations on the domestic money supply. This type of policy is called sterilized foreign exchange intervention (Krugman and Obstfeld, 2020, 488). ” Impact on Money Supply See Table 323. Table 324 summarizes and pares the effects of sterilized and nonsterilized interventions. IV. Balance of Payments and Money Supply 41 Table 323 Sterilization and Money Supply T a bl e 3 2 3 1 O r i gi na l B a l a nc e S he e t A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 1000 $ 1500 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i on $ 500 $ 2020 T a bl e 3 2 3 2 B a l a nc e S he e t a f t e r S a l e of $100 A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 900 $ 1500 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i on $ 400 $ 2020 T a bl e 3 2 3 3 B a l a nc e S he e t a f t e r I nt e r ve nt i on A s s e t L i a bi l i t i e s F or e i g n A s s e t s D om e s t i c A s s e t s $ 900 $ 1600 D e pos i t s h e l d by pr i v a t e ba n ks C u r r e n c y i n c i r c u l a t i o n $ 500 $ 2020 42 Table 324 Summarization C e n tra l B a n k’ s A c t i on E f f e c t on D om e s t i c M on e y S u ppl y E f f e c t on C e n t r a l B a n k D om e s t i c A s s e t s E f f e c t on C e n t r a l B a n k F or e i g n A s s e t s N on s t e r i l i z e d F or e i g n E x c h a n g e P u r c h a s e +$ 100 0 +$ 100 S t e r i l i z e d I n t e r v e n t i on F or e i g n E x c h a n g e P u r c h a s e 0 $ 100 +$ 100 N on s t e r i l i z e d F or e i g n E x c h a n g e S a l e $ 100 0 $ 100 S t e r i l i z e d I n t e r v e n t i on F or e i g n E x c h a n g e S a l e 0 +$ 100 $ 100 43 Fixing the Exchange Rate I. Exchange Market Equilibrium in a Fixed Rate Suppose the central bank fixes its currency rate at S0. The foreign exchange market will arrive at equilibrium when UIP holds. Hence, ii*=(EtSt+1St)/St= (EtSt+1S0)/S0 Since we assume the target rate S0 will not change under any circumstance, this means that EtSt+1=S0, consequently, i=i* Since home interest rate is determined by the interaction of real money demand and the real money supply, we have to look at the money market to plete our story. 44 Fixing the Exchange Rate II. Money Market Equilibrium in a Fixed Rate Since i=i*, Ms/P=Md/P=L(Y, i*) Under a fixed rate, the central bank must automatically adjust domestic money supply to keep i=i*. III. A Diagrammatic Analysis See Figure 321. Here, for simplicity, we assume that the central bank can always keep its promise to maintain the target rate. 45 Figure 321 Asset Market Equilibrium in a Fixed Rate i* 0 S0 L(Y1, i*) L(Y2, i*) 1 1 3 3 M2/P M1/P 2 i*+(SeS)/S 46 Stabilization Policy in a Fixed Rate I. Moary Policy Conclusion: Under a fixed exchange rate, central bank moary policy tools are powerless to affect the economy’s money supply and its output. See Figure 322. See also Figure 311 (MF Model). II. Fiscal Policy Conclusion: Fiscal policy is more effective under a fixed rate than under a floating rate. See Figure 323. See also Figure 312 (MF Model). III. Exchange Rate Policy: See Figure 324. 47 S Y Y0 S0 AA DD Figure 322 Moary Policy AA1 Rise in Ms S1 Y1 48 S Y Y0 S0 AA DD Figure 323 Fiscal Policy DD1 Expansionary fiscal policy S1 Y1 AA1 Y2 1 2 3 49 S Y Y0 S0 AA DD AA1 S1 Y1 Figure 324 Exchange Rate Policy Y increases, S is to decline. The central bank has to increase Ms 50 Balance of Payments Crises Up till now, we have assumed that actors in foreign exchange market believe that the central bank can keep the target exchange rate. However, central banks always fail to defend their target rates due to speculative attacks. This is called currency crisis or balance of payments crisis. In this section, we analyze the factors leading to the crisis using the theory we have learned. See Figure 325. Actua。