国际金融学theoryofbalanceofpayments课件(编辑修改稿)

国际金融学theoryofbalanceofpayments课件(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

65 191 1 2020 55963 2020 2020 8064 178469 2020 221 24 Current Account amp。 International Investment Position (IIP) International Investment Position Identity: CAt=NIIPtNIIPt1 International Investment Position means that a country may continue to be in a deficit position on the current account in a certain time period, but it can not enjoy this forever. This probably could be best illustrated by the socalled Ponzi game. See Figure 116 for an illustration. Current Account, Saving amp。 Investment As we have seen, Y=C+I+G+XM=C+Sp+T National Ine Account 25 28 00 24 00 20 00 16 00 12 00 80 0 40 004 001 98 0 1 98 5 1 99 0 1 99 5 2 00 0 2 00 5N I I P C AFigure 116 . Current Account amp。 NIIP Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis ( in billions of dollars) 26 By simple manipulation, we have, CA=SI, or S=I+CA Note again: S is not the money deposited in the banking system, but the reminder of national ine less consumption and government purchases, ., S=YCG. Conclusion: An open economy can save either by building up its capital stock or by acquiring foreign wealth,but a closed economy can save only by building up its capital stock (Krugman and Obstfeld, 2020, ). National Ine Account 27 We may divide S into private saving and government saving for meaningful researches. Private Saving is defined as the part of disposable ine that is saved rather than consumed. Private saving, denoted by Sp, can be expressed as Sp=YTC Government Saving is defined as the government ine less its consumption. Let Sg stand for government saving, then, Sg=TG National Ine Account 28 The two types of saving we have defined above add up to a country’s national saving, ., S=Sp+Sg Finally, we can redefine the relation among current account, saving, and investment in an open economy, CA=(SpI)+(TG) Note also that S is not directly presented by statistical yearbooks in China, but may be estimated by the identities we offer. And see “case study” in the textbook on page 306307 for a discussion on the . vs. Japan. National Ine Account 29 I. Balance of Payments A country’s Balance of Payments keeps record of economic transactions between a country’s residents and its nonresidents in a given time period, usually in a year. We shall pay special attention to the following concepts: Flow vs. Stock Resident vs. Nonresident The International Moary Fund (IMF) has ever offered an explanation to the concept. Balance of Payments Account 30 See stipulations by the IMF in the fifth edition of “Balance of Payments Manual” on page 2021. Economic Transactions Economic transactions are made up of the following five ponents: Transactions among financial assets and goods and services Barters Transactions among financial assets, such as securities trading Unilateral goods and services transfer Unilateral financial assets transfer Balance of Payments Account 31 II. Basic Accounting Principles Examples of Paired Transactions Doubleentry bookkeeping: . Imagine you buy a typewriter from the Italian pany Olivetti and pay for your purchase with a RMB1,000 check. The transactions may be recorded as follows. Source: Krugman and Obstfeld (2020). Balance of Payments Account C r e d i t D e b i t T y p e w r i t e r p u r c h a s e ( C u r r e n t A c c o u n t ) R M B 1 , 0 0 0 S a l e o f D e p o s i t ( F i n a n c i a l A c c o u n t ) + R M B 1 , 0 0 0 32 . 112. Suppose during your travels in France, you pay RMB200 for a dinner at the Restaurant de l’Escargot d’Or. You place the charge on your credit card. The transactions may be recorded as follows. Source: Krugman and Obstfeld (2020). Balance of Payments Account C re d i t D e b i t D i n n e r p u r c h a s e ( C u r r e n t A c c o u n t ) R M B 2 0 0 S a l e o f c l a i m o n t h e c o m p a n y i s s u e d y o u r c r e d i t c a r d ( F i n a n c i a l A c c o u n t ) + R M B 2 0 0 33 . Financial account transactions. Imagine your uncle Sid buys a newly issued share of stock in the . oil giant British Petroleum (BP). He places his orders with his stockbroker, paying RMB95. Source: Krugman and Obstfeld (2020). Balance of Payments Account C r e d i t D e b i t S id ’s p u rc h a s e o f a s h a re o f B P R M B 95 B P ’s d e p o s it o f S id ’s p a y m e n t a t IC B C + R M B 95 34 Balance of Payments Account . Suppose China’s banks five RMB5,000 in debt owed to them by the government of the imaginary country of Bygonia. In this case, China makes a RMB5,000 capital transfer to Bygonia, which appears as a –RMB5,000 entry in the capital account. The associated credit is in the financial account, in the form of a RMB5,000 reduction in China’s assets held abroad. Source: Krugman and Obstfeld (2020). Also, see the table below. C re d i t D e b i t C h i n a ’s d e b t f o r g i v e n e s s ( C a p i t a l a c c o u n t ) R M B 5 , 0 00 R e d u c t i o n i n b a n k s ’ c l a i m s o n B y g o n i a ( F i n a n c i a l A c c o u n t ) + R M B 5 , 0 00 35 Current Account Current account reflects the international transfer of real resources in the economy. “Specifically, the major classification are goods and services, ine and current transfers.” Goods (visible trade) and services (invisible trade) Ine. The item basically includes pensation of employees, and investment ine Current Transfers are distinguished from capital transfers, which are included in the capital and。