国贸理论与政策neo-classictradetheory(编辑修改稿)

国贸理论与政策neo-classictradetheory(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

ociety 97, September 1953.) Capital Requirement Labor Requirement Exports Kx = 2550780 Lx= manyears Imports Km = 3091339 Lm= manyears 2020/9/15 Leontief‟s Second Test One million dollars39。 worth of typical exportable and importable in 1951 Capital Requirement Labor Requirement Exports Kx = 2256800 Lx=174 manyears Imports Km = 2303400 Lm=168 manyears (K/L)x = Kx / Lx = $12,970 (K/L)m = Km / Lm = $13,711 (K/L)m = (K/L)x In 1956 Leontief repeated the test for US imports and exports which prevailed in 1951. In his second study, Leontief aggregated industries into 192 industries. He found that US imports were still more capitalintensive than US exports. US imports were % more capitalintensive. The degree had been reduced but the paradoxical conclusion remained. (See: W. Leontief, Factor Proportions and the Structure of American Trade: Further theoretical and empirical analysis, Review of Economics and Statistics 38, no. 4 November 1956.) 2020/9/15 Leontief‟s Comments on His Discovery Facing such a stare tonguetied[39。 tʌŋtaid] (因胆怯等 )说不出话的 paradoxical conclusion Leontief surprisingly pointed out: • “These figures show that an average million dollars’ worth of our exports embodies体现；包含 considerably less capital and somewhat有点 ,稍微 more labor than would be required to replace from domestic production an equivalent amount of our petitive imports”. • “ America’s participation in the international division of labor is based on its specialization on labor intensive, rather than capital intensive, lines of production”. • “In other words, this country resorts to foreign trade in order to economize its capital and dispose of its surplus labor, rather than vice versa”. • “The widely held opinion that—as pared with the rest of the world—the United States‟ economy is characterized by a relative surplus of capital and a relative shortage of labor proves to be wrong. As a matter of fact, the opposite is true”. Who can tell me who I am? 2020/9/15 Is the Leontief‟s paradox true? • Baldwin Test (Professor Robert E. Baldwin (1971) used the 1962 US trade statistics to almost entirely repeat what Leontief did by using the data of 1947 and 1951): (K/L)m = (K/L)x, in consistent with Leontief‟s paradox. Support HO theory 2020/9/15 Is the Leontief‟s paradox true? (cont.) • Tests on Global Data (This study confirms the Leontief paradox on a broader level) 2020/9/15 Is the Leontief‟s paradox true? (cont.) Trade Between the United States and South Korea, 1992 (million dollars): NorthSouth trade in manufactures seems to fit the HeckscherOhlin theory much better than the overall pattern of international trade. 2020/9/15 How to understand Leontief‟s paradox? • Factor Intensity Reversal (要素密集度逆转 ) • Demand bias (需求偏好论 ) • Trade barriers (贸易壁垒论 ) • Natural resources (自然资源论 ) • Heterogeneous [,hetərəu39。 dʒi:niəs] labor (劳动力不同质论 ) • Human capital (人力资本论 ) 2020/9/15 Factor Intensity Reversal[ri39。 və:səl] • refers to the situation where a given modity is the Lintensive modity in the Labundant nation and Kintensive modity in Kabundant nation. ＊ The elasticity of substitution: measures the degree or ease with which one factor can be substituted for another in production as the relative price of factor declines. ＊ It is more likely to occur the greater is the difference in the elasticity of substitution of L for K in the production. 2020/9/15 Factor Intensity Reversal (cont.) (w/r)1 N1X: (K/L)=1/3 N1Y: (K/L)=3/4 (w/r)2 N2X: (K/L)=3 N2Y: (K/L)=4/3 So, X is Lintensive in N1 and Kintensive in N2. 2020/9/15 A case: Agriculture is laborintensive in India but capitalintensive in the United States. Since India is surely a labor abundant country agricultural production in India must be a typical laborintensive process. While because of very relatively high wage rate and a relatively low price of capital the United States tends to substitute labor input with a great deal of agricultural machinery. If the United States imports agricultural products from abroad, then it looks like to import some capitalintensive goods, a Leontief paradox occurs in the US, because a false appearance shows that a capital abundant country is importing capitalintensive products. If the United States exports agricultural products to India, that is true in the USIndian bilateral trade, then a Leontief paradox occurs in India, because a widely recognized laborabundant country, India, is importing some laborintensive goods. 2020/9/15 How prevalentis Factorintensity Reversal? •When factorintensity reversal is present, neither the HO theorem nor the factorprice equalization theorem holds. •The factorintensity reversal does occur in the real world is beyond doubt. •The frequency of factor reversal in the real world is an empirical question(经验问题 ): 1%. So, the factor intensity reversal can‟t explain effectively the Leontief‟s paradox. 2020/9/15 How to understand Leontief‟s paradox? • Factor Intensity Reversal (要素密集度逆转 ) • Demand bias (需求偏好论 ) • Trade barriers (贸易壁垒论 ) • Natural resources (自然资源论 ) • Heterogeneous labor (劳动力不同质论 ) • Human capital (人力资本论 ) 2020/9/15 Demand Bias • Stefan ValavanisVail might be a pioneer of this approach. In 1954 he suggested a hypothesis of consumption structures. • He argued that there would be possibility in the real world that a capital abundant country did not need to export capitalintensive good if her tastes are strongly biased toward capitalintensive goods. • Equivalently, a labor abundant country would import laborintensive goods from abroad if residents of this country had a very strong bias toward consumption of laborintensive goods. • Thus, Leontief Paradox can be explained if the US had。