外文翻译--基于灰色关联分析商业银行信贷风险管理(编辑修改稿)

外文翻译--基于灰色关联分析商业银行信贷风险管理(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

These models and methods are mostly used to measure the size of the risk and then conclude the form of the asset portfolio to avoid or reduce the occurrence of credit risk. On considering concrete influent factors, the amount of research done is low. Fang and Zeng (2020) have built the credit risk evaluation function using multivariate statistical methods on the borrowing enterprise39。 s financial data so as to improve the scientificalness of enterprise39。 s credit risk assessment. Bai and Zhu (2020) have done research on the factors affecting credit risk and e to a conclusion that enterprise finance and macroeconomy, region and industry index, have an influence on the credit risk to some extent. Based on the vacancy of indepth research on the influencing factors, this article studies the influencing factors in impairment loans analyzed from different industries through the incidence identification method using the grey incidence analysis method. It adds the macroeconomic factor which concludes that the proportion of credit assets owned by the bank influences the credit risk and provides the industry judgment of executing difference credit. According to the empirical analysis result, how the bank credit risk emerges will be analyzed from the macroscopic perspective and provides an objective basis for some existences of macroeconomic phenomenon. The structure of this paper is as follows: the second part puts forward the incidence identification method with time series related to the bank credit risk according to industry and macroeconomic factors. The third part shows empirical research and analysis on the historical data with the Bank of Communications of the theoretical model and concludes that the mercial bank credit risk management advises according to the results of this study。 the fourth part is the conclusion of investigation. 2 The incidence identification method Credit risk is that the borrower or the counterparty is unable to perform a contract with the obligation prescribed (such as servicing) due to credit quality changes and causes a loss to the bank. This paper selects impairment loan ratio referring to the index of credit risk size. The impairment loan of the bank includes the existing nonperforming loans and the portion which is likely to be nonperforming loans in the future. The proportion of the impairment loans influence the bank credit risk directly. If the impairment loan ratio is high, mercial bank credit risk will be relatively big。 if the impairment loan ratio is low, mercial bank credit risks will be relatively small. For the attribute of the industry and macroeconomic factor of bank loans towards the bank credit risk influence, this article chooses the grey incidence analysis method of grey system theory to study establishing the incidence identification method. The grey incidence analysis method mainly researches the development trend and development factors of the internal system, which is widely used in the social system, economic system, agricultural system, ecosystem and education system. Although regression analysis method is always used to research the relationship between the explained variables and variables which is also widely used in plex objective economic change phenomenon, the grey incidence analysis is applicable n。