外文翻译---资本流入新兴市场土耳其(编辑修改稿)

外文翻译---资本流入新兴市场土耳其(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

follow in the next section. The model has two stable equilibria and one unstable equilibrium. Gaziogln and McCausland [2020。 2020。 2020] show that having a high percentage of shares under foreign ownership has an asymmetrical effect on exchange rate and on international indebtedness during inflows and outflows. Unstable equilibrium is the term used when a country has to borrow in order to make its debt repayments. The empirical work uses the dynamic variables of real exchange rate, real stock market index, and foreign capital flows. Ghosh [2020] used only the real exchange rate and real stock market index to find out the direction of causality. The causality tests show that the order of the variables is as follows: capital flows (FORNFLP), stock market index (STOCKP), and real exchange rate (EXCCPI). Foreign Share in Istanbul Stock Market (ISM) One of the main aims of this paper is to argue that the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in any domestic stock market is a key indicator of vulnerability in the domestic stock market. The theoretical macromodel includes the dynamics of this important indicator. As a case study in Turkey, data from the Istanbul Stock Market (ISM) is used. It is worth noting that liberal foreign exchange policies have applied since 1989, so foreign investors are free to buy and sell in the ISM, as much as they wish. Foreign portfolio investment in the Istanbut Stock Market (ISM or IMKB) increased from $33,654 million in 1996 to $83,069 million in 1999 and to $111,157 million in 2020. Since 1996, the level of foreign investment has been growing very rapidly. Furthermore, the percentage of shares owned by foreign investors is around 50 percent of the total market. This is quite high. No figures were available for foreign portfolio investment levels before 1995. Structured VAR Approach The daily data is extracted from the International Moary Fund (IMF) data stream for the period 01/01/1990 11/26/1999. Other stock market data is taken from Istanbul Stock Market publications. Real exchange rates, stock market prices, and international debt variables are used in order to relate it to the theory. This theory shows the possibility of unstable equilibrium when the share of foreign investment in the economy is high. A Structural VAR model was adopted as it overes the identification problem of the VAR estimation. The author39。 s contribution is to add a full macromodel behind the econometric analysis. Stationarity and Cointegration Tests The stationarity of all variables is tested. The data was divided into subperiods using Romers’ Narrative VAR Approach. The whole period (from 01/01/90 11/26/99) and the crisis period (from 11/26/95 11/26/99) were investigated separately. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests with and without a linear trend for the data in levels and first differences are reported in Table 1. The hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected for two of the variables. Both real exchange rate (EXCCP) and stock market values (STOCKP) are rejected to be I(0) without the trend. However, real exchange rates (EXCCPI) and real stock market returns (STOCKP) with the trend variables have no unit roots within the 5 percent confidence for both the entire and the final periods. For foreign capital flows (FORNFLP), the n。