外文文献翻译--发展中国家能源与经济增长的因果关系(编辑修改稿)

外文文献翻译--发展中国家能源与经济增长的因果关系(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

of their use in production activities. Thus, it is not just the doubtful substitution possibility between labour and capital that is the 7 problem here, but rather that the energy implication of the absence of such a possibility demands some attention. It is this fact that underlines the plementarity between energy and capital and the attendant implications for energy consumption intensity in developing countries. Also critical to the debate is the cost associated with substituting capital for energy which has not received adequate consideration in the debate. In order to enhance capitalenergy substitution possibilities, massive investment in plants and equipment is necessary to replace the energy intensive intermediate technology widely in use. There is also an additional cost associated with developing the human re source base that is necessary to maximize the envisaged energy savings that would accrue from the introduction of efficient technologies (Cecelski et al, 1979). If such transition costs were to prove prohibitive, developing countries economies would be exposed to serious energy constraints. Equally important are the zero substitution possibilities that exist between mercial and traditional energy with respect to certain industrial and household activities, partly because of supply constraints, but mainly due to cooking habits and traditions. In other areas where these possibilities exist, the environmental costs in terms of desertification and drought tend to cast serious doubts on its sustainability as a longterm energy strategy. Evidently, it is obvious from the latter point that the issue of plementarity and substitutability between energy and capital in developing countries is largely irrelevant. Instead, we would argue that for the developing countries, energy plements capital. Given the desire of developing countries to increase valueadded contributions to primary modity exports on the one hand, and on the other, the small substitution possibilities between capital and labour, capital and foreign exchange scarcities will bine to plicate energy scenarios in these countries (Dunkerley et al, 1981). Several studies undertaken for the developing countries have indicated strong relationships between energy and economic growth (Leach et al, 1986。 Ang, 1987。 Dunker ley, 1986。 Desai, 1986。 Pearson, 1987。 Arima, 1994). Common to these studies is the finding that ine elasticity of energy demand generally tends to be 8 highly elastic and greater than unity, whereas estimated price elasticities have been insignificantly different from zero and very inelastic. The implication being that it takes more than a 1% increase in energy consumption to produce an increase of 1% national ine. Analogously, price elasticity of energy demand is very inelastic since the quantity of energy demanded is far less responsive to price changes. These findings contrast with those found for the industrialized countries where ine elasticities of energy demand generally tend to be less than one (Nordhaus, 1977。 Hamilton, 1977。 Griffin, 1979). Intuitively, and given the right institutions (technical and financial resources, investment in human capital, and the capacity for policy fomulation and implementation), the developed countries have successfully decoupled energy consumption trends from economic growth. These are the necessary prerequisites to factor substitution possibilities. The very absence of these favourable conditions in the developing countries largely explain their energy consumption intensity. The economies and energy sectors of Nigeria and Tanzania The economies of Nigeria and Tanzania typify those of the rest of subSaharan Africa. They are largely monocultural, relying on one or two primary modity exports. The agricultural sector is undeveloped and largely managed on a subsistence basis. This apart, the sector is characterized by low capital formation requiring food imports that are often used to augment falling domestic production. While Nigeria39。 s industrial sector contributes 43% of total GDP, Tanzania contributes only 5%. Generally though, the sector in both countries exhibits similar characteristics, being dominated by import substituting footloose assembly type industries. Consequently, few backward or forward linkages exist between the industrial sector and the rest of the economy. A perennial balance of payment deficit, brought about largely by modity price fluctuation and adverse terms of trade between primary modities exports and manufactured imports, is a mon feature of both economies. Increasingly, external borrowings and financial aid have 9 bee dominant in macroeconomic planning. Consequently, these countries have bee heavily indebted. For example, total debts for 1992 stood at US$30 998 million and US$6715 million for Nigeria and Tanzania respect ively (World Bank, 1994). The magnitude of the impact on economic growth has caused unease at the Economic Commission of Africa, given the increasing proportion of export proceeds devoted to debt servicing (ECA, 1988). For example, total external debts to exports were % and % for Nigeria and Tanzania respectively in 1992. Furthermore, external debt as a proportion of GNP in 1992 was % and % respectively for the two countries (World Bank, 1994). It is no coincidence that economic growth has varied with foreign exchange availability in these countries (Singh, 1986). The energy sectors of both economies are undeveloped and characterized by shortages and supply constraints (Ebohon, 1992). While Nigeria is a oil exporter and flares more than 90% of its gas reserve, energy shortage is so marked that power interruptions and fuel shortages are monplace (Ebohon, 1992). This is attributable to inadequate energy infrastructure, lack of spare parts, m。