摩根斯坦利-关于汽车的报告(ppt67)英文-汽车(编辑修改稿)

摩根斯坦利-关于汽车的报告(ppt67)英文-汽车(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

J a n 9 3 J a n 9 5 J a n 9 7 J a n 9 9 J a n 0 1 J a n 0 3S A A R3 m t h m ov i ng a v g Units FY03E Units FY04E Source: Man Stanley Research Western European SAAR 1 0 , 5 0 01 2 , 0 0 01 3 , 5 0 01 5 , 0 0 01 6 , 5 0 0J a n 9 4 J a n 9 6 J a n 9 8 J a n 0 0 J a n 0 2S A A R3 m t h m ov i ng a v g FY03E FY04E Source: Man Stanley Research Global Excess Capacity at 25%30% or 20mm units 4050607080902020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 20207 0 . 0 %7 2 . 5 %7 5 . 0 %7 7 . 5 %8 0 . 0 %A s s e m b y C a p a c i t yU t i l i z a t i o nSource: Autofacts amp。 Man Stanley Research CapEx / Damp。 A FY2020E: OEMs Spending for Growth Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research *Adjusted to fit scale 0%50%100%150%200%250%Ki aHyundaiNi ssanBMWMazdaHondaMitsubishiRenaultFord VWDCXPSAFIATToyotaGMZero Sum Game Global Dilemma: Most participants are spending for growth, yet the industry does not grow.  Slow growth amp。 excess capacity suggest deflation / revenue pressures are likely to continue.  Not everybody can be a winner.  Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good product that consumers are willing to pay for. Modest Demand Growth Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:  Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus, significant pentup demand was never created.  The number of offlease vehicles is falling sharply – fewer consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.  Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.  Economic conditions appear mixed. Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line Demand Source: Man Stanley Research Vehi c le Sal e s1 9 8 6 20 0 4 Ey = 1 6 3 . 5 6 x + 1 3 7 1 2R2 = 0 . 4 0 5 91 2 ,0 0 01 3 ,0 0 01 4 ,0 0 01 5 ,0 0 01 6 ,0 0 01 7 ,0 0 01 8 ,0 0 01986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2020 2020 2020E(in 000 units)T r o u g hP e a k20202020T r e n d li n e G r o w t h 1 .0 %2020ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to Trough Source: . Polk, Global Insight amp。 Man Stanley Research D u r a t i o n M a g n i t u d e S t a n d a r d S t d . D e v .C y c l e ( y r s ) ( u n i t s ) H i g h Low M e a n D e v i a t i o n a s % o f M e a n1 9 6 1 1 9 6 6 6 5 5 , 0 9 7 1 0 , 8 8 5 6 , 8 7 2 9 , 1 8 3 1 , 5 4 7 1 6 . 8 %1 9 6 7 1 9 6 9 3 3 1 , 7 6 7 1 1 , 3 5 2 1 0 , 1 4 7 1 0 , 5 8 9 664 6 . 3 %1 9 7 0 1 9 7 4 5 6 1 , 5 6 3 1 4 , 2 0 1 1 0 , 5 2 9 1 2 , 3 1 3 1 , 4 2 5 1 1 . 6 %1 9 7 5 1 9 8 1 7 9 0 , 1 5 0 1 4 , 9 6 6 1 0 , 7 1 0 1 2 , 8 7 9 1 , 6 6 0 1 2 . 9 %1 9 8 2 1 9 9 1 10 1 3 9 , 1 3 4 1 5 , 7 9 6 1 0 , 3 2 6 1 3 , 9 1 3 1 , 9 6 0 1 4 . 1 %1 9 9 2 2 0 0 4 E 13 2 0 3 , 3 9 8 1 8 , 0 8 9 1 2 , 7 9 4 1 5 , 6 4 6 1 , 5 9 8 1 0 . 2 %Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales 6 . 06 . 57 . 07 . 58 . 08 . 51982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 20201 0 , 0 0 01 2 , 0 0 01 4 , 0 0 01 6 , 0 0 01 8 , 0 0 0W a v gS a l e s1 Year Lead Correlation % Source: Polk amp。 Man Stanley Research Off Lease Vehicles Begin to Decline Source: Manheim amp。 Man Stanley Research Fewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the Dealerships 2 , 8 9 03 , 2 7 53 , 4 5 23 , 3 0 32 , 7 6 52 , 3 8 32 , 0 0 02 , 4 0 02 , 8 0 03 , 2 0 03 , 6 0 02020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020385177( 14 9)( 53 8)( 38 2)Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months) Source: Federal Reserve Board amp。 Man Stanley Research 3 0 . 0 04 0 . 0 05 0 . 0 06 0 . 0 07 0 . 0 0J u n 71J u n 74J u n 77J u n 80J u n 83J u n 86J u n 89J u n 92J u n 95J u n 98J u n 01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer Equity Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research ($ 1 0 , 0 0 0 )($ 5 , 0 0 0 )$0$ 5 , 0 0 0$ 1 0 , 0 0 0$ 1 5 , 0 0 0$ 2 0 , 0 0 0$ 2 5 , 0 0 0$ 3 0 , 0 0 00 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56Pa y m e n t Mo n th sEquity Value1 . 9 % 7 2 m n t h s d o m e s t i c0 . 0 % 6 0 m n t h s d o m e s t i c0 . 0 % 3 6 m n t h s d o m e s t i cPo s . Eq u i t y i n 4 4 m n t h sPo s . Eq u i t y i n 3 3 m n t h sPo s . Eq u i t y i n 1 6 m n t h sEconomic Conditions Better than they were, but still not robust Source: CPI amp。 Man Stanley Research Peak Trough Now Jan02 Oct02 Nov03 Interest Rates Consumer Confidence Gasoline Prices Used Car Prices Employment Affordability Near 25 Year Best 171819202122231 Q 8 0 4 Q 8 3 3 Q 8 7 2 Q 9 1 1 Q 9 5 4 Q 9 8 3 Q 0 2Number of Weeks of Ine to Purchase a Vehicle Source: FRB amp。 Man Stanley Research Intense Competition Competitive pressures are likely to remain difficult:  Capacity growth to continue in 2020.  Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.  Market share pressures to continue as well. NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls Outlook Source: Company data amp。 Man Stanley Research 2020 2020 Ford Nissan (122) 250 308 2020 Ford GM (211) (98) 80 = 100,000 units GM Ford Honda Nissan Toyota 125 (146) 180 200 30 Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly % of NA sales 2020 Toyota 150 389 180 Toyota DCX Hyundai 235 6 Excess Capacity amp。 More Is On The Way Every 1% Pt. of Market Share Translates into $ in Profits 853,000 Units of Added Capacity is % of NA Capacity, or $5bn in Pretax Profits NA Pretax Profit Big Three FY03E (in MM) $1,971 Source: Man Stanley Research Estimates Reve。