ebusinessconferenceexpo(doc)-经营管理(编辑修改稿)

ebusinessconferenceexpo(doc)-经营管理(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

osion of devices. Yes, 700 million personal puters by the year 2020. But they will be dwarfed by other kinds of worked access devices: personal digital assistants, Netenabled cell phones, game consoles. We39。 ve all seen the forecasts. Within the 4 next few years there39。 s going to be a billion wireless appliances connected to the Net. Mobile emerce is going to be a $100 billion marketplace by the year 2020. But what we call pervasive ebusiness won39。 t stop at the integration of new kinds of end user access devices. Coming up right behind all these new end user devices will be a trillion or more connected things things we39。 d never think of as puters but which will be doing a little puting and maybe a little storage. This pervasive world is with us already: Whirlpool39。 s smart appliances。 Medtronics is working on pacemakers that will have Inter addresses。 very soon your car will be a client device on wheels. So that39。 s what we mean by endtoend business infrastructure. The second aspect of infrastructure that39。 s really important is standards. I39。 m not going to say very much about standards because if you understand end to end and what it really means, the need for standardsbased puting is very easy to understand. The infrastructure must be open, and it must be based on crossindustry standards so you can connect to those millions of people and businesses wherever they are and connect to those billions of devices whatever they are. That39。 s why the fight for open standards is worth fighting. That39。 s why XML has got to remain open. That39。 s why we39。 re betting a big piece of IBM39。 s future on Linux. We39。 re going to invest nearly $1 billion in Linux next year. Fifteen hundred IBM developers are dedicated to Linuxenabling our products and services and not just for applications that run on a wristwatch, which we39。 ve built by the way. We39。 re moving Linux into mercial production environments. Today we announced that we will install a superputerscale Linux cluster the largest Linux installation in the world at Shell International Exploration and Production. Keio University in Japan is integrating two campus works supporting 15,000 users with Linux. Last week Telia, the largest telemunications pany in Scandinavia, announced it39。 s going to run its core business applications and consumer Inter services on a mainframe running Linux. And along with Intel, NEC and HP, we39。 ve already announced a huge Open Source Development Lab in Portland, Oregon an independent, nonprofit resource to give the open source munity a place to test enterpriseclass Linux software. Why? Because we39。 re convinced that Linux can do for business applications what the Inter did for working and munications: Deliver on the promise of truly open, interoperable, anytoany puting. Linux shipment growth is expected to increase more than any other server operating environment over the next few years. It39。 s growing at twice the rate of NT, and there are some estimates that say Linux will cross over and bee more prevalent than NT by 2020. This is a big issue for every server pany. It39。 s going to be interesting to see if three or four years from now, anybody with a proprietary UNIX system will still have a meaningful position in the industry. In fact, the movement to standardsbased puting is so inexorable, that I believe Sun and for that matter, EMC and Microsoft are running the last big proprietary plays we39。 ll see in this industry for a long time to e. A final point on infrastructure, which some of you are well aware of. The infrastructure technology that exists today isn39。 t ready. Now, I know it39。 s not fashionable in the puter industry to point out limitations of technology, but the fact is, the infrastructure today cannot handle what39。 s ing. I39。 ve seen projections of 1,000fold increases in Inter traffic in the next few years, and that39。 s probably reasonable. Inside IBM, we talk about 10 times more connected people, 100 times more work speed, 1,000 times more devices and a million times more data. Whatever it is, very soon this worked world is going to be several of orders of magnitude bigger and more plicated than anything we know today. So we39。 re headed for a wall. Customers can39。 t just roll in processors and storage fast enough to avoid meltdowns when usage spikes, or to deal with this cacophony of devices, or fend off viruses or hacker attacks, or handle translations on the fly. People are good, but they39。 re not that good. 5 All of this the load balancing, the traffic management, the security, the transcoding all of it has to happen in real time naturally, spontaneously based on far greater levels of intelligence that are built right into the work. And by intelligent I39。 m not talking about puters that can write the next Ninth Symphony. I39。 m talking about intelligence that, for example, we take for granted in our own bodies. We walk up three flights of stairs and our heart rate increases. So does our oxygen intake. When we plop down into a chair, our bodies adjust. It39。 s hot, we perspire. It39。 s cold, we shiver. We don39。 t tell ourselves to do these things. They just happen. We need something similar for ebusiness. It39。 s a much more natural, spontaneous, almost autonomic kind of puting. Let me give you an example from the ultimate extreme of highend puting. Last year IBM launched a $100 million project to build a new class of puter: a system 100 times more powerful than today39。 s biggest superputer. We call it Blue Gene GENE because the first application is going to be to attack the mystery of protein folding in biology. Now, puting on this scale involves millions of linked processors working together,。