中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译(编辑修改稿)

中国的汇率政策和亚洲贸易外文翻译(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

They are also similar to the estimated export price elasticities for major industrial countries (– and – for the United States and the United Kingdom, respectively, according to Hooper et al (1998)). For both ordinary and processed exports, the longrun positive effect of world demand on Chinese exports is very small and not statistically significant in our full sample, but it does bee significant after WTO membership. That result is in line with the idea that China was facing considerable barriers to profiting from other countries’ growth before its WTO entry. In addition, for the most recent sample, the ine elasticity of Chinese exports is very close to 1, as expected. The estimated coefficients of the import equations are shown in Table A3 in the Appendix. Demand factors seem to play a relatively moderate role in explaining past imports. In the later subsample, imports for processing do react positively to external demand, measured by processed exports, and domestic industrial output increases ordinary imports, as expected. As one would expect, the FDI stock appears to have a positive effect in the long run both on ordinary imports and on imports for processing. Finally, a reduction in import tariffs seems to foster imports for processing in the long As for exports, dummies for the Chinese New Year as well as for December were significant in most cases. Finally, the exchange rate elasticity of imports is always negative and generally significant. The only exception is imports for processing in the latter subperiod, for which the negative coefficient on the exchange rate is significant only at the 15% level. The exchange rate has not only a direct link to imports for processing but also an indirect link via processed exports. In other words, a renminbi real appreciation tends to reduce imports rather than to increase them. Although counterintuitive at first sight, such negative elasticity has already been reported in some of the most recent literature, such as Marquez and Schindler (2020). The finding basically implies that imports – even ordinary ones – are more sensitive to the lowering of exports induced by the renminbi real appreciation than to a rise in purchasing power. 5 VI. Conclusions During the past few years, there has been growing discussion both in China and in international forums on the desirability of a renminbi appreciation. Many have argued that exchange rate policy would not serve the purpose of reducing China’s large trade surplus. This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate. In fact, estimating longrun elasticities of Chinese exports and imports to changes in the renminbi’s real effective exchange rate for the period from 1994 to end2020, we find strong evidence that a real appreciation reduces exports substantially in the long run. The result holds both for processed exports (. transformed and reexported goods) and ordinary exports. However, real currency appreciation also reduces imports to China, which limits the impact of exchange rate policy on the trade surplus. On the basis of our estimated elasticities for the period beginning at the point (2020) that WTO entry for China was known, a 5% real appreciation of the effective exchange value of the renminbi – other things given – would have led to about a 7% reduction in export volume. When we take into account the direct link from the exchange rate to imports as well as the indirect link (from a decrease in processed exports to imports for processing), the total volume of imports would have decreased by about 4%. Based on these estimates, the trade surplus would have shrunk almost by one fourth in 2020, from about USD 100 billion to less than USD 80 billion.。