中国房地产市场：中期校正和长期增长【外文翻译】(编辑修改稿)

中国房地产市场：中期校正和长期增长【外文翻译】(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

od the importance of the real estate sector to economic growth and applied an “ electric shock” to get real estate investment beating again. In Stage 2, more supportive measures have been issued. However, given the deteriorating economic conditions around the globe, the transaction volume should be revived but not the selling price. Most developers have to be more realistic and cut prices to protect their sales volume from being squeezed further, especially with the risk of sizable inventories of social welfare housing ing into the market. Therefore, we saw property selling prices decline by percent and the transaction volume start stabilizing in the first quarter of 2020. Stage 3 marks the period of recovery and rebound. China’ s economy rebounded more swiftly from the global downturn than any other big economy, thanks largely to its enormous moary and fiscal stimulus. According to National Bureau of Statistics, China’ s GDP grew by percent in 2020 as a whole and percent, percent, and percent in the last three quarters respectively. And China’ s home prices in 70 large and mediumsize cities, a housing price trend barometer, rose percent, percent, and percent in the three quarters in a row since March 2020. A sharp residential property price increase nationwide accelerated fears that a property bubble was forming. China’ s government started to take measures to deflate the bubble. On January 20, 2020, the general office of the State Council issued a notice that required central governmental departments and local governments to strengthen management, stabilize market expectations, and facilitate stable and sound development of the real estate market. The notice listed 11 specific measures, including increasing supply of lowcost houses for lowine families and mon residential houses, encouraging reasonable house buying while restraining purchases for speculation and investment, strengthening real estate project loan risk management and market supervision, and specifying responsibility of local governments. We expect property prices and transaction volume to start stabilizing again in 2020. LongTerm Growth and Prosperity From the longterm perspective, the cyclical downturn and upturn from September 2020 to early 2020 in China’ s property market can be viewed as a midterm correction in a longrun story of growth and prosperity. The factors that underpin sustainable growth of the housing market remain sound, such as relatively strong economic growth, positive demographic trends, urbanization, and upgrades in living standards. In the next few years, China can achieve GDP growth of 8 percent, which together with other stable macroeconomic conditions will offer a favorable macro environment for its property sector. China is expected to continue experiencing several demographic trends over the next decade. This will have many positive implications for all types of real estate. First, China’ s billion population is expected to increase by 2 percent to billion by the end of 2020. There is a bulge in age distribution with 27 percent of the population age 25– 39, providing a large pool of homebuyers. Second, the number of households is likely to increase significantly by 2020, due to a rapid projected decline in the present average household size of under three persons. This should sustain a strong aggregate demand for new housing. Third, the workingage population is expected to increase to 772 million in 2020 before dropping back to 751 million in 2020. Accounting for unchanging levels of unemployment, this should help underpin both economic growth and the underlying demand for real estate. More important, China is at an early stage in th。