网通战略咨询报告2(ppt52)英文版！-电子电信(编辑修改稿)

网通战略咨询报告2(ppt52)英文版！-电子电信(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

MB) CapEX OpEx Revenue 5 year NPV@15%: ~ 500M RMB 5 year IRR: ~12% Essentially breakeven economics for operating backbone for VOIP only VOIP(2) Backbone construction Backbone International termination IDD DLD IP POP/Access platform OSS Present value of cash flows (1) Assuming 15% cost of capital (2) Including settlement charges estimated at 10% of VOIP revenue, and marketing/sales at 10% of revenue (3) Backbone OpEx charges allocated 1/3 each to VOIP, wholesale, and enterprise business model economics Source: BCG benchmark database。 industry interviews。 BCG analysis 14 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI AGENDA Business Models • Domestic and international longdistance voice • Wholesale/carrier • Enterprise solutions • Issues going forward 15 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI APPROACH TO WHOLESALE/CARRIER BUSINESS MODEL Objectives Hypothesized Approach Develop wholesale business as traffic generator to improve economics of backbone through higher utilization Bee the wholesale carrier of choice with technologically superior service offerings including high bandwidth international gateway connectivity Consider wholesaling access to CT, Uni, and Jitong depending on petitive implications Superior customer service with clear positioning • “The clear alternative to CT” Aggressive deployment of backbone infrastructure • Connecting top 15 cities by end of 2020 and expanding to top 50 cities by 2020 Seek partnerships to establish high bandwidth international gateway connectivityabsolutely essential for differentiating CNC offering Develop interconnection capabilities in all major POPs and mobile basestations in key geographical locations Wholesale access to incumbent providers where feasible, but do not wholesale sources of petitive advantage (., enhanced data services such as IP VPNs) Rollout product offering in staged manner to ensure quality of service • Inter connectivity • Mobile interconnect • Access ports to backbone 16 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI WHOLESALE/CARRIER SUMMARY Preliminary Economics Phase I CapEx (2020,2020): ~100 M RMB • ISP access platform: ~50 M RMB • OSS/Provisioning systems: ~50 M RMB OpEx expected to be ~ 10% of revenue by 20201 Market share and revenue estimates 2020 • Mobile (backbone): 15% • ISPs: 9% ~ B RMB • Access ports: 100%2 • Dark fiber: 100%2 5 year NPV: ~ $ B RMB Assumes launch date of 3Q 2020 for leased lines and relatively aggressive mobile shares • Potentially too optimistic Key Issues to be Addressed Backbone technology platform QOS for voice vs. lower cost deployment? Highbandwidth international gateway paramount to differentiating ISP access Favorable regulatory backing for courting regional CT mobile carriers Ensuring existing VOIP gateways can serve wholesale needs Revenue opportunity of wholesaling dark fiber vs. enabling petition Organizational challenges (1) Including allocation of backbone OpEx (2) Market estimates based on revenue generation by CNC alone 17 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI POTENTIAL WHOLESALE CUSTOMERS INCLUDE ISPs, MOBILE OPERATORS, AND FIXED LINE CARRIERS ISPs offer significant potential if CNC can provide superior bandwidth access and to international gateway • Current satisfaction among regional ISPs very low • International gateway license in conjunction with high bandwidth transoceanic carrier alliance could provide vastly superior service Mobile carriers will be searching for lower cost alternatives to carry long distance traffic due to intensifying petition • CNC’s new high capacity VoIP work and international gateway likely to yield lower costs Fixed line carriers potentially looking for alternatives • Existing longhaul transport infrastructure limited • China Tele could even be a possible customer given current focus on increasing residential teledensity 18 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI OVERALL WHOLESALE MARKET SIZE IS SUBSTANTIAL AND GROWING AT A MODEST RATE Anticipated Price Decrease in Leased Lines Limits Overall Revenue Growth 0510152025301998 1999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Leased Lines ISP Market Size (RMB B) 15 Total Leased Lines Mobile 99’ 04’ CAGR Access Ports Leased Lines Paging 18 18 20 22 26 28 4% 41% 1% 152% (1) 9% (1) 01’ 04’ CAGR Source: CNC team inputs。 foreign benchmarks。 BCG analysis Dark Fiber 68% (1) 19 China Net The Boston Consulting Group ConfidentialDestroy by Shredding 4503405Interim14Dec99TZDgxSHI CARRIERS SEEKING ALTERNATIVES... ISPs definitely seeking alternatives to CT Mobile carriers likely to follow “ We need a tele service provider that is not our petitor.” Founder, East “ China Tele, with their own work development plans, tends to starve us on capacity or to force us to pay in advance for excess capacity.” Manager, Infohighway “The fact that it takes China Tele two months every time we need an extra line makes it very difficult to have our own customers. We want another operator who can get us leased lines fast.” Manager, Infohighway Mobile carriers might consider diverting part of their traffic to alternative service providers with: • more attractive pricing • high。