abstractsofpapers论文摘要december16，20xxsection1(english(编辑修改稿)

abstractsofpapers论文摘要december16，20xxsection1(english(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

y and statistically. The paper examines the information basis of characterizing individuals and offers alternatives motivated by welfare and decision theories. The proposed method helps place propensity scores and other matching proposals in context and reveals their advantages and disadvantages. We do not find the implied theoretical assumptions underlying propensity scores to be attractive or robust. Our proposal does not solve the matching problem, but provides some helpful markers and interpretations which reveal the arbitrariness of specific solutions. A second contribution of the paper is to propose Information Theory methods for optimal matching based on entire distributions, rather than a few moments. The distribution based decision making is consistently adopted throughout the paper. 摘要： 本文检验了利用实验与其他对个体及效果评估的基础。 为了匹配的目的，我们还检验了个体的多重性格问题，包括理论和统计应用。 本文检验了个性化个体的信息依据并提供了由福利和决策理论延伸的其它选择。 本文提出的方法有助于在处理倾向得分和其它匹配问题，并揭示它们的优点和缺点。 我们没发现处理倾向得分理论中具备稳健的假设。 我们的方法并不解决匹配问题，但提供了一些揭示特殊解决方式任意性的帮助和解释。 本文的另一个贡献是提出了基于整体分布而不是一些矩的最优匹配的信息理论方法。 本文一贯以考虑了整体分布的决策方法作为分析基础。 （ 余洪 译 ） [3] Career Progression and Formal versus OntheJob Training 事业成长、离岗与在岗培训 J. Adda, University College London and IFS, UK C. Dustmann, University College London and IFS, UK Costas Meghir, University College London, UK (英国伦敦大学学院， Econometrica 前联合主编 ) J. M. Robin。 University of Paris 1, France, University College London and IFS, UK Abstract: We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of training choice, employment and wage growth, allowing for job mobility, in a world where wages depend on firmworker matches, as well as experience and tenure and jobs take time to locate. We estimate this model on a large administrative panel data set which traces labour market transitions, mobility across firms and wages from the end of statutory schooling. We use the model to evaluate the lifecycle return to apprenticeship training and find that on average the costs outweigh the benefits。 however for those who choose to train the returns are positive. We then use our model to consider the longterm lifecycle effects of two reforms: One is the introduction of an Earned Ine Tax Credit in Germany, and the other is a reform to Unemployment Insurance. In both reforms we find very significant impacts of the policy on training choices and on the value of realised matches, demonstrating the importance of considering such longer term implications. 摘要： 我们开发了一个有关培训选择、就业以及工资增长的动态离散选择模型。 我们在模型中允许工人在不同工作中转换，同时工人工资取决于厂商与工人的匹配、工人的工作经验、在本岗位时间长短和对寻找工作是一个需要耗时的过程的考虑。 为了测算这个模型，我们使用了一个大型的行政面板数据库。 这个数据库包含了个人从法定就学年龄之后的劳动力市场各种状态变化信息、在不同厂商之间的转换 信息，以及工资信息。 利用这个模型，我们评估了学徒培训对个人的一生收入的回报率，并发现平均来说入不敷出，但对那些选择培训的个人培训的汇报率是正的。 接着，我们用这个模型考虑两个改革对个人一生收入的长期影响：一个是在德国引入的 收入减免退税 (Earned Ine Tax Credit)，另一个是失业保险改革。 我们发现两个改革都对个人的培训选择以及实现的厂商与工人的匹配的价值有重要影响，从而验证考虑这类长期影响的重要性。 Section 4A (English) Applied Econometrics (II) [1] Generalized ResidualBased Diagnostic Testing for Duration Models with Censoring 设定检验与持续时间模型 Jing Liu, Cornell University, USA Yongmiao Hong (洪永淼 ), Cornell University, USA and Xiamen University, China (美国康奈尔大学，厦门大学王亚南经济研究院院长 ，厦门大学经济学院经济学系主任 ) [2] Evaluating the Impacts of Washington State Repeated Job Search Services on the Earnings of Primeage Female TANF Recipients 华盛顿州重复工作搜寻服务政策对接受 TANF 的中青年女性收入影响的评估 Cheng Hsiao (萧政 ), University of Southern California, USA and Xiamen University, China (美国南加州大学， 厦门大学王亚南经济研究院， Journal of Econometrics 主编 ) Yan Shen, Peking University, China Boqing Wang, Department of Social and Health Services, USA Greg Weeks, Employment Security Department, USA Abstract: This paper uses an unbalanced panel dataset to evaluate how repeated job search services (JSS) and other personal characteristics affect the quarterly earnings of the primeage female welfare recipients in the State of Washington. We propose a joint dependent framework for the probability of employment and potential earnings or hours or hourly wage rates to facilitate the investigation of the issues of joint determination of employment and potential earnings and to allow for factors to have different impacts on employment status and on quarterly earnings. We have also suggested formulae to pute the dynamic impact of JSS on duration and earnings. Both the maximum likelihood (ML) and semiparametric estimates are provided. We find that the results are sensitive to the choice of models and estimation methods. For a randomly assigned individual, the first, second and the three or more JSS raised the shortrun and longrun earnings by (5%, 0%, 0%) and (1%, 0%, 0%), respectively, based on the MLE and by (%, %, %) and (%, %, %), respectively based on the semiparametric Tobit model. We have also conducted specification analysis. The results appear to favor semiparametric Type II Tobit model estimates. 摘要： 本文使用非均衡面板数据模型来评估华盛顿州的重复的工作搜寻服务（ JSS）和其他个人特征如何影响初期女性社会福利接受者的季度收入。 我们提出了一个联合依赖分析框架分析就业和潜在工资（或者工作时间或 小时工资）的概率。 这样做一方面便于研究就业和潜在工资的联合决定因素，另一方面也考虑到各种因素对就业状况和季度收入有多种不同的影响。 在此基础上我们也给出了计量 JSS 对持续期和收入的动态影响的公式。 在文中我们同时进行了极大似然估计（ ML）和半参数估计，我们发现估计结果与计量模型和估计方法的选择密切相关。 根据极大似然估计（ MLE） ,对于一个随机登记的个人来说，第一次 、 第二次 、第三次（或者更多）的工作搜寻服务分别提高了其短期和长期收入的（ 5%,0%,0%） 和（ 1%,0%,0%）。 而根据半参数 Tobit 模型相应的结果 分别是 (%, %, %) 和 (%, %, %)。 我们进行了详细的分析，结果倾向于接受半参数类型－Ⅱ的 Tobit估计模型。 （ 李云森 译 ） [3] The Hausman Test for Correlated Effects in Panel Data Models under Misspecification (面板数据模型误设情形下相关性效应的 Hausman 检验 ) Raymond O39。 Brien, University of Southampton, UK (英国南安普敦大学 ) Eleonora Patacchini, University of Rome, La Sapienza Abstract: We investigate the performance under misspecification of the DurbinWuHausman test for correlated effects with panel data. Consideration of size leads to a general proposition for quadratic forms in normal variate which gives conditions for a class of test statistics, which are chisquare under correct s。