中级宏观经济学governmentdebt(编辑修改稿)

中级宏观经济学governmentdebt(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

and moary policy is important  most governments know the folly of creating inflation  most central banks have (at least some) political independence from fiscal policymakers slide 27 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt OTHER PERSPECTIVES: Debt and politics “ Fiscal policy is not made by angels…” – Greg Mankiw,  Some do not trust policymakers with deficit spending. They argue that policymakers do not worry about true costs of their spending, since burden falls on future taxpayers since future taxpayers cannot participate in the decision process, their interests may not be taken into account  This is another reason for the proposals for a balanced budget amendment (discussed above). slide 28 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt OTHER PERSPECTIVES: International dimensions  Govt budget deficits can lead to trade deficits, which must be financed by borrowing from abroad.  Large govt debt may increase the risk of capital flight, as foreign investors may perceive a greater risk of default.  Large debt may reduce a country’s political clout in international affairs. slide 29 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt CASE STUDY: Inflationindexed Treasury bonds  Starting in 1997, the . Treasury issued bonds with returns indexed to the CPI.  Benefits:  Removes inflation risk, the risk that inflation – and hence real interest rate – will turn out different than expected.  May encourage private sector to issue inflationadjusted bonds.  Provides a way to infer the expected rate of inflation… slide 30 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt CASE STUDY: Inflationindexed Treasury bonds 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2020 0103 2020 0627 2020 1219 2020 0611 2020 1203 2020 0527 2020 1118 2020 0512 percent (annual rate) rate on nonindexed bond implied expected inflation rate rate on indexed bond Chapter Summary 1. Relative to GDP, the . government’s debt is moderate pared to other countries 2. Standard figures on the deficit are imperfect measures of fiscal policy because they  are not corrected for inflation  do not account for changes in govt assets  omit some liabilities (., future pension payments to current workers)  do not account for effects of business cycles CHAPTER 15 Government Debt slide 31 Chapter Summary 3. In the traditional view, a debtfinanced tax cut increases consumption and reduces national saving. In a closed economy, this leads to higher interest rates, lower investment, and a lower longrun standard of living. In an open economy, it causes an exchange rate appreciation, a fall in exports (or increase in the trade deficit). 4. The Ricardian view holds that debtfinanced tax cuts do not affect consumption or national saving, and therefore do not affect interest rates, investment, or exports. CHAPTER 15 Government Debt slide 32 Chapter Summary 5. Most economists oppose a strict balanced budget rule, as it would hinder the use of fiscal policy to stabilize output, smooth taxes, or redistribute the tax burden across generations. 6. Government debt can have other effects:  may lead to inflation  politicians can shift burden of taxes from current to future generations  may reduce country’s political clout in international affairs or scare foreign investors into pulling their capital out of the country CHAPTER 15 Government Debt slide 33 MACROECONOMICS C H A P T E R 169。 2020 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved SIXTH EDITION PowerPoint174。 Slides by Ron Cronovich N. GREGORY MANKIW CHAPTER 13 Aggregate Supply slide 35 CHAPTER 15 Government Debt 相同的政策在不同时期的不同结果：  1963年肯尼迪政府的减税计划。  1963年，失业率达到 ％．（经济中有过剩的生产能力）实施减税计划。  1965年失业率下降到 4． 4％，在 60年代余下的年份保持在 4％以下．实际 GDP在 19641966以超常的 ％增长． 通货膨胀率保持在较低水平。 1968年，美国的失业率降低到了 3％。  1969年刺激内需的政策（减税、战争、大规模社会保障计划）。  加剧了通货膨胀，甚至在 1970年和 1971年，失业率和物价水平同时上升，回到了 1。