thestockmarket,thetheoryofrationalexpectations(编辑修改稿)

thestockmarket,thetheoryofrationalexpectations(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

r k e t , a l l u n e x p l o i t e d p r o f i t o p p o r t u n i t i e s w i l lb e e l i m i n a t e dCopyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 716 Application Investing in the Stock Market • Remendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market • A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the stock • Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected • A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 717 Behavioral Finance • The lack of short selling (causing overpriced stocks) may be explained by loss aversion • The large trading volume may be explained by investor overconfidence • Stock market bubbles may be explained by overconfidence and social contagion Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 718 Chapter 8 An Economic Analysis of Financial Structure 金融结构的经济学分析 Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 719 FIGURE 1 Sources of External Funds for Nonfinancial Businesses: A Comparison of the United States with Germany, Japan, and Canada Source: Andreas Hackethal and Reinhard H. Schmidt, “Financing Patterns: Measurement Concepts and Empirical Results,” Johann Wolfgang GoetheUniversitat Working Paper No. 125, January 2020. The data are from 1970–2020 and are gross flows as percentage of the total, not including trade and other credit data, which are not available. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 720 Eight Basic Facts 1. Stocks are not the most important sources of external financing for businesses 2. Issuing marketable debt and equity securities is not the primary way in which businesses finance their operations 3. Indirect finance is many times more important than direct finance 4. Financial intermediaries, particularly banks, are the most important source of external funds used to finance businesses. Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 721 Eight Basic Facts (cont’d) 5. The financial system is among the most heavily regulated sectors of the economy 6. Only large, wellestablished corporations have easy access to securities markets to finance their activities 7. Collateral is a prevalent feature of debt contracts for both households and businesses. 8. Debt contracts are extremely plicated legal documents that place substantial restrictive covenants on borrowers Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 722 Transaction Costs • Financial intermediaries have evolved to reduce transaction costs – Economies of scale – Expertise Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 723 Asymmetric Information • Adverse selection occurs before the transaction • Moral hazard arises after the transaction • Agency theory analyses how asymmetric information problems affect economic behavior Copyright 169。 2020 Pearson AddisonWesley. All rights reserved. 724 Adverse Selection: The Lemons Problem • If qu。