汽车行业：毕博__全球汽车行业报告及咨询市场展望英文版(编辑修改稿)

汽车行业：毕博__全球汽车行业报告及咨询市场展望英文版(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

that performs well in the areas that customers have e to expect from Honda.  The upside for domestic automakers is that it is doubtful the Japanese can continue increasing their share at the same pace. Fewer segments are left for the Japanese to invade. The Toyota division, for example, offers a full line of vehicles parable to Ford or Chevrolet, and it has a range of models in the Lexus luxury division that includes sedans, SUVs, and sports cars.  Profitability is also pressured at the Big 3 pared to Asian manufacturers. For example, Honda averages $1,581 in profit per vehicle (sold in the US) and Toyota gets $1,214. General Motors, however, earns only $701 while Chrysler Group makes only $226. Ford loses an average of $114 on each vehicle sold last year. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Global Automotive Industry: Market Share by Revenue D a i h a ts u 1 %N i s s a n4%H o n d a5%V o l k s w a g e n8%Po r s c h e A G1 %F i a t5%P e u g o t6%R e n a u l t3%B MW A G4%Mi ts u b i s h i2%Su zu k i1%D a i m l e r C h r y s l e r14%F o r d15%G e n e r a l M o t o r s17%T o y o t a10% The global automotive industry is highly concentrated while market share is shifting.  DaimlerChrysler, Ford Motor, and General Motors make up 44% of total global sales. However, this is one percent less than last year, indicating the Big 3‟s loss of market share to smaller petitors.  While Toyota has greatly increased its market share in the US, the pany has also lost a percentage of market share since last year.  Imports to North America are the highest they‟ve been since the late 80‟s. Of particular concern to American manufacturers, light truck sales, once the major profit generator, are losing share to foreign petitors like Toyota and Nissan. Source: Standard And Poors, 2020 BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Industry Profitability Severely Pressured The large automakers have been fighting the downturn and trying to sustain sales with large rebates and easy credit in the US and increasingly in Europe. However, these strategies have seriously pressured profits.  DaimlerChrysler reported in July 2020 that ine fell worse than it has since the industry‘s last poor earnings period in late 2001.  Mitsubishi promoted easy credit, including loans that deferred payments for a year to consumers with weak credit but have recently rescinded this promotion due to profit erosion.  PSA‘s profit was hit mostly due to the rise of the Euro, especially against the British Pound and Brazilian Real, Brazil being where it has one plant.  Some automakers are attributing this span of poor earnings to the bottom of the current cycle of slowdown, however many are still seeking structural improvements and better pricing power to buffer this cycle. Company Earnings Status Issues General Motors Operating profit fell 87%, Announced earnings August 8, 2020 Intense US price war severely pressured profits Daimler Chrysler Second quarter 2020 operating profit fell 62% Chrysler losses, US price war, Mercedes sales slacking Renault Operating profit fell €588 million. Last reported 7/24/03 Global sales decline (%) in first half。 adverse currency moves PSA Puegot Citreon Operating profits in auto division down 27% in first half 2020 Strong euro, weak French demand Volkswagen €400 million off its pretax profit, announced May 2020 Foreignexchange moves, weak European sales Mitsubishi Forecasting $674M loss as of July 2020 US sales down 20% in 6 mos. April。 anticipates $420M charge for bad car loans Ford 96% drop in operating profit in mid July announcements $525M loss at Ford of Europe, US price war Source: Wall Street Journal, Earnings Reports BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP Automakers Still Poor at Aligning Supply and Demand Profits in the global auto industry are suffering since OEMs cannot align their supply with consumer demand. While consumer demand data is readily available, carmakers follow lagging indicators and the result is ineffective advertising and rebates and inventory overstocks. The current methods that automakers use to satisfy demand are out of alignment.  In record sales years (such as 2001), profits in the automobile industry averaged a mere % and only three panies—BMW, Honda and Magna International had 5% profit.  Forecasts often miss actual demand. For example, demand for Daimler‘s PT Cruiser far exceeded supply when it came on the market. Then DCX ramped up capacity to 230K units, making it ordinary and buyers moved on. Right now the factory is discounting the model, further eroding the model‘s image.  Suppliers are hurt by variation. When an OEM plans incorrectly on a particular platform volume, of about 1015%, the factory has to raise or lower volume suddenly.  In 2002 sales were the lowest in four years, leaving vehicle inventory at 70 days. Seventy days of inventory can mean $40B in capital sitting on lots. Meanwhile dealers and OEMs spend $3B and $11B, respectively, every year on advertisements.  The loop from production planning to manufacture to sale and back takes up to 6 months, which is too long to fix overproduction of an unpopular configuration or to inform suppliers of surges in demand. With a lagging market, intense petition and more rapidly shifting consumer tastes, this poor alignment has been more obvious in the industry than ever.  Automakers are still applying last year39。 s sales results to the current year‘s preplanned volume without consideration of how many days it took to sell specific vehicles. BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE GROUP US Automotive Distribution: Inefficient Network Dealers account for nearly all US car and mercialvehicle sales, but these works are increasingly inefficient.。