theimpactofchinaonlatinamericaandthecaribbean＊

theimpactofchinaonlatinamericaandthecaribbean＊内容摘要：

of labourintensive manufactures in which China is highly petitive, but also as a petitor for foreign direct investment (FDI) as a result of the 7 massive inflows to China since the early 1990s. This has given rise to concern that FDI is being diverted from Latin America to China. Another important indirect impact is the effect that China’s emergence has had on the terms of trade between primary modities and labourintensive manufactured goods. The booming demand for agricultural and mineral products (including oil) in China has contributed to rising prices for primary modities (Kaplinsky, 2020。 UNCTAD, 2020, ). On the other hand, the massive growth of Chinese production of labourintensive manufactures has tended to push down the prices of such goods. Thus China’s growth can have implications for Latin American and Caribbean countries even in the absence of bilateral links or petition in third markets. China’s rapid growth has also had a multiplier effect on world demand which has contributed indirectly to the demand for exports from Latin America and the Caribbean. It is also argued that China has contributed to the dynamism of the world, and particularly the US economy, by its policy of buying US Treasury Bills, thus keeping down the rate of interest in the USA. This could also have had a beneficial effect on the Latin America and Caribbean economies. It is more difficult to evaluate the implications of these global impacts on specific Latin American countries so that they will not be discussed in any detail in this paper, although they are important to bear in mind. It is important to bear in mind that because of the differences in size, China is economically much more significant for Latin America and the Caribbean than the region is for China. This is certainly true as far as individual countries are concerned. Brazil, the largest Latin American exporter to China, ranks fourteenth amongst China’s suppliers accounting for % of total imports, while no other country in the region is in the top twenty import sources. Latin American countries are even less significant as destinations for China’s exports with Mexico, the most important, ranked twenty second with less than 1% of China’s total exports. Even taking Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, the region accounts for only 3% of China’s exports and supplies % of its imports. China on the other hand is one of the top five export markets for Argentina, 8 Brazil, Chile, Cuba and Peru, and is one of the leading five sources of imports in these countries and Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay and Uruguay (CEPAL). The next two sections of the paper describe the different channels through which China’s growth has affected the Latin American and Caribbean economies. The next section focuses on bilateral trade and investment links. This is followed by a discussion of the indirect impacts of China on the region in terms of the petitive threats which it poses, both in terms of Latin America’s exports to third countries and as a pole of attraction for FDI, as well as the impacts on the region’s terms of trade. Where possible these sections identify the countries and sectors which are most affected by China. Particular attention is given to the two largest Latin American economies, Brazil and Mexico. These are often seen as having contrasting experiences, with Brazil having achieved major exports of primary modities to China, while Mexico has been negatively affected by Chinese petition in export markets, particularly the US. The penultimate section of the paper discusses the impacts which the growth of China is having on development in Latin American and the Caribbean with a particular emphasis on the possible implications for poverty reduction in the region. This section also seeks to highlight major gaps in our knowledge concerning the impact of China. The concluding section identifies major policy issues which need to be faced by policy makers both in the Latin American and Caribbean countries and in China itself. 2. Bilateral Economic Relationships between Latin America and the Caribbean and China a) Exports As indicated above, Latin American and Caribbean exports to China have grown spectacularly in recent years. While trade with China was expanding during most of the 1990s, the really sharp increase in exports from the region has occurred since 1999 (see ). Since this pattern holds for all the major Latin American countries exporting to China, it would seem that the explanation must be sought in events in China rather than developments in the various Latin American countries. One possible explanation is that 9 resource constraints really began to bite in China at the end of the 1990s. This view is supported by the sharp increase in China’s trade deficit in a number of primary modities which feature prominently in Latin America’s exports such as copper, iron ore, nickel and soybeans from the late 1990s (UNCTAD, 2020, ). Furthermore the accession of China to the WTO in 2020 and the ensuing trade liberalization could have given an additional boost to the region’s exports. Figure 1 Ch in a 39。 s T r a d e w it h L a t in A m e r ic a a n d t h e Ca r ib b e a n , 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 40 . 0 05 , 0 0 0 . 0 01 0 , 0 0 0 . 0 01 5 , 0 0 0 . 0 02 0 , 0 0 0 . 0 02 5 , 0 0 0 . 0 01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020US$ millionC h i n a 39。 s I m p o rt s f ro m L AC h i n a 39。 s Ex p o rt s t o L A The extent to which Latin American and Caribbean countries have participated in this regional export boom varies considerably. While China accounted for % of the region’s total exports in 2020, the shares for individual countries ranges from less than 1% of total exports in Colo。