newproductdecisionmodels

newproductdecisionmodels内容摘要：

he number of consumers who participated in the study. New Products–28 Other Choice Rules Share of utility rule: Under this choice rule, the consumer selects each product with a probability that is proportional to the utility of that pared to the total utility derived from all the products in the choice set. Logit choice rule: This is similar to the share of utility rule, except that it gives larger weights to more preferred alternatives and smaller weights to less preferred alternatives. Alpha rule: Modified version of share of utility rule. Before applying the share of utility, the utility functions are modified by an ―alpha‖ factor so that the puted market shares of existing products are as close as possible to their actual market shares. New Products–29 Example Market Share Computation (Frozen Pizza Example)  Market consists of three products and three consumers Product (P1) (P2) (P3) Aloha Meatlover’s Veggie Special Treat Delite Crust Pan Thick Thin Topping Pineapple Pepperoni Veggie Type of cheese Mozzarella Mixed cheese Romano Amt. of cheese 4 oz. 6 oz. 2 oz. Price $ $ $ New Products–30 Example Market Share Computation (Frozen Pizza Example) Consumers‟ PartWorths C1 C2 C3 Pan 0 10 26 Thin 9 37 0 Thick 11 0 10 Pineapple 17 3 0 Veggie 6 0 14 Sausage 13 3 7 Pepperoni 0 0 19 Romano 52 0 21 Mixed cheese 13 9 0 Mozzarella 0 3 14 2 oz 0 0 0 4 oz. 8 39 16 6 oz. 10 21 12 $ 0 0 0 $ 10 4 18 $ 10 12 16 New Products–31 Example Market Share Computation (Frozen Pizza Example) Computed Utility for Products Customer P1 P2 P3 C1 35 34 77 C2 59 30 49 C3 74 41 51  Infrequently purchased products: Consumers only buy the brand with the highest utility. Then, the market share for Product 1 is % and Product 3 is %.  Frequently purchased products (Share of utility rule) Assume each consumer buys the same amount. Then Market share of P1 = ( ++)/3 = % Market share of P2 = (++)/3 = % Market share of P3 = (++)/3 = % New Products–32 Share of Utility Rule  Describe petitive set  Assign individual weights if any  Compute market share  wi pij i mj = ––––––––––   wi pij j i mj: market share of product j wi: weights assigned to individual i New Products–33  Example: Italian vs Thai = 20 – 16 = 4 util units $10 vs $15 = 22 – 14 = 8 util units  So ―Thai” is worth $ more than “Italian” for this customer: )$)1015(84(  Can use to obtain value to customer of service (nonprice) attributes. How to Use in Design/Tradeoff Evaluation New Products–34 Another Example of Conjoint Analysis Air Pollution Control Systems D252。 rr Environmental is developing a new air pollution control system (thermal oxidizer) to pete against existing offerings from Waste Watch, Thermatrix, and Advanced Air. Key offering attributes:  Thermal efficiency  Delivery time  List price  Delivery terms Q: What to offer? Who will buy/who to target? Where will share e from? New Products–35 New Products–36 Attributes  Price (4 options)  Delivery_terms (4 options) Efficiency Delivery time List Price Exceed by 9% 6 months $600k Exceed by 5% 9 months $700k Meets target 12 months $800k Short by 5% 15 months $900k Delivery terms Installed, 2year guarantee Installed, 1year guarantee Installed, service contract FOB seller, service contract A total of 256 (4x4x4x4) different offerings can be designed from these options! An Example Conjoint Study: Air Pollution Control Equipment  Performance specs (4 options)  Delivery time (4 options) New Products–37 Market Share Computation: (Air Pollution Control Equipment) Sunoco Mattel ICI Base 0 0 0 Meets target 5 10 10 Exceed 5% 35 0 40 Exceed 9% 40 0 50 12 months 20 5 3 9 months 30 20 8 6 months 40 10 10 $800k 5 20 2 $700K 8 35 5 $600K 10 50 10 Inst_ser 6 5 10 Inst_1Yr 8 10 20 Inst_2Yr 10 20 30 Customer’s Utility New Products–38  Market consists of three products and three customers Product Market Share Computation (Air Pollution Control Equipment) Waste watch Thermatrix Advanced Air Performance specs Exceed 5% Exceed 20% Meet Specs Delivery time 9 months 9 months 6 months List Price $800k $900k $700k Delivery terms FOB_ser Inst_1Yr Inst_ser New Products–39 Computed Utility for Products Market Share Computation: (Air Pollution Control Equipment) Waste Watch Thermatrix Advanced Air Sunoco 70 78 61 Mattel 40 30 75 ICI 50 78 40  Maximum Utility Rule: If we assume customers will only buy the product with the highest utility, the market share for Thermatrix is 2/3 and 1/3 for Wahlco.  Share of preference rule: If we assume that each customer will buy each product in proportion to its utility relative to the other products, then market shares for the three products are: Waste Watch: % Thermatrix: Advanced Air: New Products–40 Identifying Segments Based on Conjoint Part Worths () Analyze file in Cluster Analysis to obtain the above results. New Products–41 Members in Each Segment Segment 1. Companies in this Segment include  Cummins Engineering, Illinois Tools, Mattel, NesteResin, R。