andoperationsmanagementdecisions天气变动风险,对

andoperationsmanagementdecisions天气变动风险,对内容摘要：

higher is the average seasonal temperature, the lower is the market demand. For example, – a European clothing manufacturer tried to encourage retailers to buy its winter collection early by offering a rebate if adverse weather conditions prevailed. – The clothing maker produces winter clothes that are usually ordered by retailers in the summer to sell in late autumn and early winter. – If the weather is milder than usual during the selling season, sales suffer and retailers are left with a surplus that they cannot sell the following year when fashions have changed Source: • Several years ago, Bombardier Inc., a Canadian snowmobile manufacturer, offered an incentive that helped to protect itself against the lower sales and leftover inventory that acpany a mild winter. – In the winter of 1998, the pany offered buyers in the US Midwest a $1,000 rebate on its snowmobiles if a preset amount of snow did not fall that season. (The preset amount was half the average snowfall of the past three years, and the price of its snowmobiles ranges from $7,000 to $9,000.) – Sales increased 38% from the prior year! (Davis and Meyer 2020). • The manufacturer provides the retailer an incentive to purchase more by offering a rebate if the actual seasonal average temperature is higher than a predetermined threshold, with the rebate amount increasing in the deviation of the average temperature above the threshold. Conditional Rebate  * if * if0 ),( )*,( tt ttqtkqtK K (): Rebate $$$ t*: Strike temperature q: Order quantity k (): Rebate rate function t: Realized temperature 温度越高越不利。 Two Rebate Forms   qttkqtK (*)(),( )1(K (): Rebate $$$ t: Temperature q: Order quantity k: Rebate rate t*: Strike temp. : Threshold quantity l = 01 variable Conditional rebate。 Agenda of Rest Talk I. The Basic Model II. Price Postponement III. Numerical Examples / Discussion IV. Other Two Models I. The Basic Model Preseason Stage 1 Season begins Stage 2 1. Supplier offers wholesale price amp。 rebate 2. Retailer decides quantity amp。 price 3. Retailer sells 4. Supplier pays rebate if any Retailer’s Profit Function )}*,({),(),( qtKEwqpqRpqr r (): Retailer’s expected profit q: Order quantity p: Selling price R(q,p): Expected revenue w: wholesale price Conditional rebate Supplier’s Profit Function )}*,({)(),( qtKEqcwwqs s ( ): Supplier’s expected profit q: Order quantity w: unit production cost Conditional rebate Analysis: without a rebate Retailer (qr, pr): Optimal order quantity amp。 price dr (qr, pr): Max. profit Supplier wd : Wholesale price ds (qr, wd ): Ma。