项目管理：pmp考前培训-强力推荐(编辑修改稿)

项目管理：pmp考前培训-强力推荐(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

By Dai Lian Page43 条件图法 PMBOK Conditional Diagramming Method GERT：图形评审技术 允许回路（ LOOP，如：重复多次进行一项测试）或条件分枝 （ Conditional branches，如：只有当检测出错误时才进行设计更新）的存在，这是 PDM和 ADM所不允许的。 Conditional and probabilistic treatment System Dynamics Models：系统动态模型 By Dai Lian Page44 工期 =7 Task A ES EF LS LF 工期 =6 Task C ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task G ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task B ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task D ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task F ES EF LS LF 工期 =3 Task E ES EF LS LF 工期 =2 Task H ES EF LS LF 开始 结束 计算 By Dai Lian Page45 子网络 Sub Nets – Frags PMBOK 网络模板（ Network templates） 使制图过程更便捷。 可包括整个项目，也可是其中一部分。 网络的一部分称为：子网络。 特别用于网络中有重叠或相似内容时。 例如：盖楼的每一层、医药临床等。 By Dai Lian Page46 赶工 Crashing: 成本与进度的平衡 /折衷。 （ cost and schedule tradeoff）。 确定如何用最小的成本获得最大的工期压缩。 通常成本增加。 快速跟进 Fast tracking: 将前后顺序变为平行 （ change sequence to parallel）。 通常风险增加。 工期压缩 Duration Compression PMBOK By Dai Lian Page47 Resource Leveling/Smoothing/Allocation: 用在 resources constraint circumstances. 将稀缺资源先分配到关键路径上。 Allocate scare resources to the Critical Path Activities first. 通常导致比最初进度更长的工期。 Often result the longer duration than preliminary schedule. 资源重新分配 （ Resource Reallocation） : 用在 time constraint circumstances 将资源从非关键路径上重新分配到关键路径上，以弥补已经落今后的进度，或尽可能接近原定工期。 （ Resources reallocated from noncritical to critical activities to bring the schedule back， or as close as possible to its originally intended overall duration.） Extend hours, weekends, multiple shifts. Increase productivity by using different technologies and machinery. 启发式资源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics By Dai Lian Page48 启发式资源平衡法 PMBOK Resource Leveling Heuristics 资源逆向分配 （ Reverse resource allocation scheduling） : 有限或关键资源（ Finite and critical resource). 从项目结束时间逆推进度（ Scheduled backwards from ending date） 关键路径资源计划 Critical Chain resource Planning: A technique modifies the schedule to account for limited resources. Question: Add more people on a task can increase or decrease the productivity? By Dai Lian Page49 进度更新 Schedule Updates PMBOK 更新 Update: Modification to schedule May or May Not require to adjustments to other aspects of project Plan. 修订 Revision: Special category of Update. Change to the start and finish dates in approved project schedule. Generally in response to the scope changes or changes to estimate. 重新确定基线 Rebaselining: While schedule severe delay, the original performance measurement baseline not applicable Be careful, since the historical data will be lost. By Dai Lian Page50 成本管理 （ Cost Management） What’s cost management? Including: Initiate the project Estimating Organizing Controlling Analyzing Reporting Forecasting Taking necessary corrective action when required. By Dai Lian Page51 关于成本管理的问题 成本管理的目的。 确保在批准的预算内完成项目的各个过程。 成本管理的方法。 资源计划 、 成本的估算、预算、控制 谁对成本在不同时间有不同的需求。 管理层（实施结果，奖励与识别），买方（不同的合同类型下） 针对不同的管理需要，成本有哪些类型。 可控、不可控；固定、变动；直接、间接 … 如何控制与管理变更。 纠正措施。 S曲线。 挣值。 By Dai Lian Page52 成本估算技术 （ Cost Estimating Techniques）  模拟 (类比 )估算 Analogous Estimating – ―top down‖。 using actual costs from previous project as basis for estimate • Reliable when previous projects are similar and individuals have expertise – form of expert judgment  参数模型 Parametric Modeling – uses project characteristics in mathematical models to predict costs ( houses) • Reliable when historical information is accurate, parameters are quantifiable, and model is scalable 2 types: Regression analysis, Learning Curve  从下至上的估算 Bottom Up Estimating – rolling up individual activities into project total – smaller work activities have more accuracy  计算机工具 Computerized tools – spreadsheets, software By Dai Lian Page53 估算的准确性 (Accuracy of Estimates）  量级估算 Order of Magnitude Estimate:  25% to 75%。  Without detailed data, Best guess, usually made during Initiation Phase  Other Names: guesstimates, Conceptual, Preliminary  预算估算 Budget Estimate:  10% to 25%。  More better data, usually made during the Planning phase  Other Names: Appropriation, Control, and Design  确定估算 Definitive Estimate:  5% to 10%。  Well defined data, usually bottom up.  Other Names: Check, Lump sum, Tender, Post contract changes. By Dai Lian Page54 估算的准确性 Cost Estimates: – 量级估算 Order of Magnitude (ballpark estimate)： During initial evaluation – 预算估算 Budget : Used to obtain funds and project approval. – 确定估算 Definitive: Proposals, bid evaluation, contract change etc. Order of Magnitude Definitive Estimate Budget Estimate 75% 25% 25% 10% 10% 5% By Dai Lian Page55 生命周期成本（ Life cycle costing） 开发成本 Development cost 生产成本 Production cost 运维成本 Operating/ Maintenance cost 处置成本 Discard cost – Disposal cost while product passed its point of usefulness. (. 电池，化学品 etc.) By Dai Lian Page56 Time Value of Money  PV = amount of payment in N years divided by (1 + interest)n  NPV=Sum of PV of inflow and outflow – NPV0, go – NPV=0, consider – NPV0, no go  IRR = that rate of discount at which the sum of the positive present values is equal to the sum of the negative present values. OR cost equal revenue and project is a break even. By Dai Lian Page57 相关财务术语及概念的介绍  Accounting Standards – Distinguish Price and Cost. – Present Value: value today of future cash flows – Net Present Value: total benefits (ine or revenue) less the costs. NPV is the sum of each present value of each ine/revenue item – Internal Rate of Return (IRR): pany may select project based on highest IRR – Payback Period: number of time periods it takes to recover the investment in the project before generating revenues – Opportunity Cost: opportunity gi。