运筹学与供应链管理-第2讲(编辑修改稿)

运筹学与供应链管理-第2讲(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

17 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting Ch 10 15 169。 20xx by PrenticeHall Inc Russell/Taylor Oper Mgt 3/e 加权移动平均之例 月份 权重 数据 八月 17% 130 九月 33% 110 十月 50% 90 十一月的预测 3 130 50 90 0 33 110 0 17 130103 4WMA W Di ii  ( . )( ) ( . )( ) ( . )( ). 318 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 指数平滑法 假设 —最近的观测具有最高的预测价值 . – 因此在预测时，应该给更近的数据赋予更高的权重 . Ft = Ft1 + (At1 Ft1) 319 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 时期 实际数据 A l p h a = 0 . 1 误差 A l p h a = 0 . 4 误差1 422 40 42 2 . 0 0 42 23 43 4 1 . 8 1 . 2 0 4 1 . 2 1 . 84 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 25 41 4 1 . 7 3 0 . 7 3 4 1 . 1 5 0 . 1 56 39 4 1 . 6 6 2 . 6 6 4 1 . 0 9 2 . 0 97 46 4 1 . 3 9 4 . 6 1 4 0 . 2 5 5 . 7 58 44 4 1 . 8 5 2 . 1 5 4 2 . 5 5 1 . 4 59 45 4 2 . 0 7 2 . 9 3 4 3 . 1 3 1 . 8 710 38 4 2 . 3 6 4 . 3 6 4 3 . 8 8 5 . 8 811 40 4 1 . 9 2 1 . 9 2 4 1 . 5 3 1 . 5 312 4 1 . 7 3 4 0 . 9 2指数平滑法举例 320 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 选择平滑常数 353739414345471 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Pe r i o dDemand  .1   .4 实际数据 321 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 线性趋势方程 • b ＝ 直线斜率 Yt = a + bt 0 1 2 3 4 5 t Y b = n (ty) t y n t 2 ( t) 2 a = y b t n        322 McGrawHill/Irwin Operations Management, Seventh Edition, by William J. Stevenson Copyright 169。 20xx by The McGrawHill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Forecasting 线性趋势方程举例 t y 周 t2 销售 ty 1 1 150 150 2。