讲义论文-franktoney博士的讲义(编辑修改稿)

讲义论文-franktoney博士的讲义(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

for UMT page 320 23 Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Team Activity The Bid Proposal is the Toughest Budgeting Task Preparing the Bid Proposal Your small information systems pany has been asked to bid a project for a large, local oil refinery. The pany is known for establishing long term and profitable relationships with vendors that have exhibited superior performance. It is important that your anization be awarded this bid. You know that two other, well respected IS panies are also bidding the job. Your task is to prepare a budget consisting of your best estimate of the true costs of the project. From this, select a bid price. Clearly differentiate between your estimated total cost for performing the project and your bid price. Raw data is given on the next graphic: Notes for UMT page 320 24 Module 3: Cost Estimating Basics Break Out: The Bid Proposal Raw Data Activity Est. Cost Est. Time Tot. Budgeted Cost 1. Planning, prep., drawings $1,500/day for the team 45 days 2. Hardware, we build Est build cost is $20K, We usually mark up 45% 3. Software Programmer pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr 30 work days 4. Vendor SW $300/puter. Plan 6 puters. Usually markup 25% 5. Installation Installers pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr 8 work days 6. Training Instructors pd $35/hr. Usually bid at $75/hr 5 work days 7. Factory OH 20% of project cost office Overhead 15% of project cost 9. Ex Warranty 2% of project cost 10. Shipping Est. $2,000 11. Travel $350 per day Est 4 work days Total Notes for UMT page 42 25 Module 4: Forecasting Objectives of Module 4 • Normative vs. extrapolative forecasting • Trend extrapolation • Multiple regression • Delphi Methodology Notes for UMT page 432 26 Module 4: Forecasting Budgets and Forecasts can be more Accurate • Contingency reserves – reduce risk of over runs in meeting objectives • Management reserves – for unknowns • Budget for accuracy, use contingency funds for risk • Apply contingency and buffer psychology Notes for UMT page 432 27 Module 4: Forecasting Parametric amp。 Analogous Estimating Improve Accuracy through Simplifications • Heuristics give a rough idea of costs. Gross margin in manufacturing this type of product is 45%. • Parametric estimates are simple formulas. The last house I built like this was $100 per foot. Therefore the cost will be about $200,000. • Analogous data is gained from prior projects. The last house I built like this cost about $200,000. I would expect this one to be about the same. Includes data bases like the UCO Accounts. Notes for UMT page 52 28 Module 5: Estimating amp。 Risk Objectives of Module 5 • Impact of risk on estimates • Evaluation of risk factors • Estimating risk vs. uncertainty • Incorporating pessimism (beta distributions) • Triangular distributions • Monte Carlo Analysis • Risk assessment groups • Life cycle costing • Data gathering/data bases Notes for UMT page 55 29 Module 5: Estimating amp。 Risk Generic Risk Evaluation Matrix Ri s k E v a l u a ti o n M a t r i xE v entH M LP r oba bi l i tyH M LM agn i tud eRes pon s eF l o o d H HAc c e p tR e j e c tM i t i g a t e S t i l t s L e v e eS p re a dM o d u l a ri z eD e f l e c tNotes for UMT page 55 30 Module 5: Estimating amp。 Risk Other Sources of Risk Identification • WBS: Still an an important tool • Staffing plan: any potential people risks? • Procurement management plan: opportunities or risks related to vendors? Notes for UMT page 55 31 Module 5: Estimating amp。 Risk EMV: Most Popular Quantitative Tools for Risk Analysis (PMBOK p139) • Statistical independence: Used for EMV and decision trees. Tossing a coin. Events are independent of each other. • Expected moary value: Impacted by risk proneness or risk aversiveness Amount Value Probability Of Winning EMV $50 .01 $.50 $2 .10 $.20 0 .89 $.00 Total $.70 Notes for UMT page 62 32 Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure amp。 Project Scheduling Basics Objectives • Work breakdown structure – details of construction and benefits • WBS as basis for costing • WBS as basis for scheduling • Scheduling basics Notes for UMT page 62 33 Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown Structure defines the Scope of the Project • We love the WBS • Heart of the project planning and definition effort. • Technique for breaking down the project into its ponent elements. • Not mandatory but important • No hard or fast rules about putting it together. • Not a a scheduling tool • Does not show dependencies Notes for UMT page 62 34 Module 6: The Work Breakdown Structure Work Breakdown Structure Benefits • Shows the project visually • Builds the team • Focuses on deliverables • Forces planning and methodology • Identifies work packages and groups of activities • Serves as the basis for scheduling, cost, spec details, performance measurement, metrics. Notes for UMT page 639 35 Module 6: Project Scheduling Estimating Considerations: How Long is Time? • Working time or work days • Productive time • Elapsed time • Productivity level • Continuous duration • Duration interruptible Notes for UMT page 639 36 Module 6: Project Scheduling Schedule Supporting Detail • Responsibility assignment matrix. Activities and whose is responsible. • Resource spreadsheet. Effort needed from each resource during each time period. • Resource Gantt chart. When each resourc。