罗兰贝格关于中国加入wto的分析报告(编辑修改稿)

罗兰贝格关于中国加入wto的分析报告(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

decrease Variable cost (2030%) lower ponent prices Fixed cost (177。 0) Units Output (+50%) Loss Loss+5 BEP BEP+5 2 3 principle Market increase + 50%1) Lines 20 presentationCEMSx The car manufacturers will reconsider their distribution and maintenance work strategy Source: Roland Berger amp。 Partners。 Deutsche Bane Alex. Brow. Sales, Leasing, Maintenance Strategic implications for foreign carmakers After WTO … • Sales and distribution in the sole responsibility partner of a Chinese firm • No direct contact with customers • Few influence on distribution and maintenance policy and quality • No car leasing possible Foreign firms are immediately allowed to form JV for sales, distribution and maintenance of their products, in 20xx they can own a majority in the JV and in 20xx all restrictions will fall away One third of carmakers plans to set up its own dealer work (. GM, Honda, Suzuki) or distribution JV with their partners (. VW) Before WTO … • Direct customer contact / influence • Branding and quality control • Maintenance margins • Investments • Existing contracts • Regional coverage Lines 21 presentationCEMSx The ponent manufacturers and part suppliers will feel the pressure most Customers • Growing demand • Expect more variety • At lower prices Component manufacturers • Have to lower prices by 10% . • Increase their quality control • Try to increase scale, value added or customer base • Look for export markets • Or seek for international/national alliance partners • Or drop out of market Industry concentration of 50% over the next 5~10 years Carmakers • Pressure for cost reductions • Introduce new models • Reconsider global sourcing • Pressure for less suppliers (modules) Competitors • New entries of global suppliers • Lower prices aggressively • Increase quality 22 presentationCEMSx C. Apparel amp。 Textile Lines 23 presentationCEMSx The WTO agreement will open the developed markets to apparel and textile imports from China Tariff reduction Successive increase of quota until abolishment Safeguards against sudden trading imbalances • China lowers average import tariffs from to % • Developed countries lower their import tariffs accordingly • Phasing out of import quotas of other WTOmembers until 20xx • Phasing out of export quotas of China • Antidumping regulations • Safeguard mechanisms in case of sudden imbalances Lines 24 presentationCEMSx The quota will be gradually abolished Quota abolishment Explanation Source: ATC, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Timetable quota abolishment Stage Implementation date Minimum integration rate Additional growth rate 1 2 3 4 1. Jan, 1995 1. Jan, 1998 1. Jan, 20xx 1. Jan, 20xx 16% 17% 18% 16% 25% 27% Full integration of textile and apparel quota • Integration means removal of textile and apparel products from quota coverage thus to be integrated into the ATC (agreement of textile and apparel) • Additional growth rate refers to the requirement of ATC to ask WTO members to increase the quota growth rate for major supplying countries. The methodology is to add an annual additional growth rate on the historical quota growth rate. Lines 25 presentationCEMSx 46%32%9%13%Sourcing structure of major importing countries 1999 [%] 20%43%16%9%13% 70%50%30%14%12%14%9%USA EU Japan Others Others Eastern Europe Europe (Esp. Turkey) China Rest of Asia1) Others Others The Americas China Rest of Asia1) Rest of Asia1) China EU USA Japan CAGR 9699 +% +% % Major importing countries / regions 1999 [%] Major importing regions and supplier regions Source: WTO, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants 1): Hong Kong included in rest of Asia: EU %。 USA %。 and Japan % Asia is the biggest supplier for US and Japan — second biggest for Europe Lines 26 presentationCEMSx Value of clothing imports into Japan [US$ bn] 1 1 , 4 5 69 , 5 4 81 0 , 5 3 81 1 , 6 0 61996 1997 1998 199919,672 16,727 14,690 16,367 China Market Share of China 59% 63% 65% 70% Source: WTO, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants China has increased its market share in Japan to 70% despite a shrinking market Lines 27 presentationCEMSx Based on production cost China is petitive on a global scale Costs of given minutes for clothing production [$] Based on a survey of KSA for a model production site including … • Wages and auxilliary wages • Productivity • Working days and time • Costs for management and administration • Overheads Cheaper production cost than China Source: KSA, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants America Asia Western Europe + Mediterrean Eastern Europe . Costa Rica El Salvador Dominican Republic Jamaica Guatemala Honduras Mexico Hong Kong Taiwan Korea Pakistan Malaysia Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand China Indonesia India Vietnam Cambodia Germany Italy France . Israel Spain Greece Portugal Turkey Tunisia Morocco Egypt Slovenia Poland Croatia Czech Republic Hungary Estonia Lithuania Slovakia Latvia Bulgaria Romania Russia Ukraine Usbekistan Moldavia Lines 28 presentationCEMSx Volume, distance of price and growth in China relative to average of EU imports Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, CITH, CIRFS, European Commission Note: Bubble size represents market share by volume of total EU imports in this category 4 0 2 0020406080100 1 0 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30Relative price to average [%] Relative growth to average [%] Trousers Women’s overcoats。