skillshortagesintheukissues,problemsand

skillshortagesintheukissues,problemsand内容摘要：

government and its agencies. WEAKNESSES REMAIN  Relatively low participation post17. Reflects structure of youth labour market and labour market regulation (. licence to practice).  Adult literacy and numeracy (basic skills) problem are quite extensive. TARGETS FOR EVERYTHING NOT A HAPPY STORY  The English VET system is now managed via a range of national targets. Some are set by central government, others by the Learning and Skills Council (LSC).  The central government Public Service Agreement (PSA) targets are set without any consultation with external actors or users of the Vet system.  The LSC‟s National Learning Targets (NLTs) are supposed to have secured buyin from employers and others.  The PSA targets override the NLTs in terms of priority for funding and other public resources.  It is far from clear that the PSA targets relate in any way to future projections of need for skills or qualifications. They appear to be driven (as are the NLTs) by international parisons of skill stocks. PROBLEMS WITH THE NLTs The NLTs are supposed to be „minimum international benchmark standards‟ that must be met to ensure economic success. The NLTs have a long history of failure:  Of the 8 targets set by the Confederation of British Industry in 1991 for achievement in 1997, just 2 were met.  Of the 6 targets set by NACETT in 1994 for achievement in 2020, only 1 was met.  Of NACETT‟s second set of 4 targets to be achieved in 2020, only 1 was met.  Of the 5 NLTs set by the LSC for achievement in 2020, only 1 was met in full, despite the fact that the 2020 NLTs were less ambitious than those set by NACETT for achievement in 2020.  No new NLTs have yet been set. AN EXAMPLE OF TARGET VERSUS NEED One of the government‟s key VET targets is one set by the Prime Minister himself – that England achieve 50% participation in HE by the 1830 cohort. This target was established without reference to need in the economy for graduate level skills. Given achievement patterns in England, this means that the vast bulk of those with intermediate level qualifications, academic and vocational, need to enter HE to meet the target. Sectors like engineering, that still need substantial numbers of young people to train as apprentices and technicians, and to fill intermediate level skill jobs, are faced with the prospect of big skill shortages. Employers plain the target is dangerous. REENTER THE DRAGON: THE RETURN OF ‘MANPOWER PLANNING’ (BIGGER, BOLDER AND MORE POINTLESS THAN EVER) „Manpower planning‟ was very briefly and mildly in vogue in the mid to late 1970s. Thereafter the fashion was for a training market. In 1999/2020 some members of the NSTF decided that the best way to avoid skills shortages was to establish an elaborate system that linked:  Labour market forecasting (based on economic modelling)  Employers‟ views about future skill needs  Funding of the VET system The Learning and Skills Council (LSC) was set up to do this. Its mission was to engage in „manpower planning‟ on a grand scale, and at a high level of detail. The aim is to match supply with demand. TOP DOWN, BOTTOM UP, AND SIDEWAYS Besides the LSC, there are many other players in the new system:  9 Regional Development Agencies (RDAs)  30 Sector Skills Councils  Sector Skills Development Agency (covers sectors with no SSC for planning purposes) And it operates at sectoral and regional levels as well. WILL THEY ALL MEET IN THE MIDDLE?  Treasury/DfES PSA targets  National LSC plan and targets  47 LLSCs plans and targets  9 RDA Regional Economic Strategies (RES), which then plan the skills ponent via 9 Regional Skills Partnerships (RSPs). These include input from the SSCs and the relevant LLSCs.  30 SSCs, (plus SSDA) each producing over the ing years its Sector Skills Agreement (SSA), which project sectoral needs and to which public funding of VET is meant to be tied. Are all these plans liable to meet up in the middle? Early indications suggest contests for scarce resources – talented people and the money to train them. PROBLEMS WITH PLANNING Planning is only as good as the data being entered. UK employers have no history of, or capacity for planning in detail within their own panies. Projected employer views on skill demand are guesses. Most projections rely on modelling of changing sectoral and occupational structures and sizes. Industry data is weak because:  It does not take account of outsourcing  Industry structures are changing rapidly  Multinationals add plexity Occupational data is weak because:  Occupations are getting fuzzy  Many skills are now crosssectoral  Measures job numbers not earnings  Job/occupation titles now cover a wide range of skill lev。