区域经济周期和房地产周期分析【外文翻译】(编辑修改稿)

区域经济周期和房地产周期分析【外文翻译】(编辑修改稿)内容摘要：

tes’ monthly coincident indexes are provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia dating from 1979:IQ . 2020:IIIQ. This data set is developed by Crone [12] estimating four latent dynamic factors of each state. The four variables are: the total number of jobs in nonagricultural establishments, average weekly hours in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and the real wage and salary disbursements. This is one of the most prehensive monthly data set available for state level economic analysis. The reason for using state level coincident indexes for this study is that there is no monthly Gross State Product (GSP) data available for the . states. GSP data are in the annual basis, but state level recession or expansion can begin and end within a year. The Housing Price Index (HPI) data used in this study is published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO)8. The HPI is a broad measure of the movement of singlefamily house prices9, which measures weighted average changes in repeat sales, mortgage defaults, prepayments, re_nancings, and housing affordability in specific geographic areas. The primary housing data are collected and provided by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the OFHEO. The OFHEO generates HPI by using a modified version of the CaseShiller geometric weighted repeatsales procedure (Calhoun, [4]). The HPI by OFHEO is more accurate and plete measure of housing price change pare to Samp。 P/ CaseShiller indexes10 or Constant Quality Housing Price Index (CQHPI)11. The HPI covers more transactions and geographic areas pared to other two data sets. We used quarterly HPI for fifty . states from 1979:IQ to 2020:IIIQ. For the national real estate cycle analysis, we also used quarterly HPI data for the . provided by the OFHEO. National business cycles and its turning points dates are listed by the NBER from 1979:IQ to 2020:IQ. First, we pare the national business cycle with the national real estate cycle. We use business cycle phases (., recession and expansion) for our parison. In the following figures, vertical lines represent national recessions dated by the NBER. Recessionary states are measured in 0 to 1 scale, where 0 represents zero probability of recession, and 1 represents full probability of recession. Therefore if the cycles are under probability scale we called these the state expansion。 those above probability scale we called the state recession. According to the following figures, the . experienced four major national recessions13 during1979:IQ to 2020:IIIQ time periods. Two recessions were at the beginning of the 1980s, the third one was at the beginning of the 1990s, and the last one was at the beginning of the 2020. Real estate recessions are marked by the solid (curve) lines in Figure . According to the Figure , the . has experienced two major real estate recessions during 1979:IQ to 2020:IQ period. One started at 1981:IIQ and ended at 1985:IQ, and the second one started at 1989:IVQ and sustained until 1999:IIIQ. For both cases, the real estate recessions started before the national recessions, and continued several periods after the national recession ended. The result indicates that even though the real estate is one of the biggest indust。